Dodgers: 3 reasons Trevor Bauer deal could blow up in LAD's face

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The Los Angeles Dodgers pushed their chips to the middle of the table on Friday and went all in. They signed Trevor Bauer to a monstrous three-year contract that will make him the highest-paid player (on an AAV basis) for at least the 2021 season (with the potential for the same in 2022).

We’re not going to sit here and say it was a bad move. The Dodgers have endless money to spend and just fortified their starting rotation in an effort to repeat as World Series champs, which hasn’t been done since the 1999-2000 New York Yankees achieved the goal.

But we’re also not going to sit here and pretend like this deal doesn’t have its risks. Bauer, arguably the most polarizing figure in baseball, is as inconsistent as they come, brings with him a lot of baggage, and has yet to really prove himself in the playoffs or consistently in front of actual fans. This far from a an infallible pairing.

So before we continue to project the Dodgers’ 2021 rotation and talk about how unstoppable it’s going to be, let’s take a look at three reasons why the Bauer deal could blow up in LA’s face.

Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

3. The Dodgers could now lose out on Justin Turner

The Dodgers blew past the luxury tax. What does that mean for Justin Turner?

Are the Dodgers guaranteed to lose Justin Turner? No. But the fact that they just splurged on a record-setting deal for a guy like Bauer could perhaps send the wrong message, especially since Turner has a few suitors at the moment, according to reports.

Many have referred to Turner as the “heart and soul” of this Dodgers’ roster. However, it’s clear he wants to get paid one last time when you realize how long these negotiations have dragged on for. And if the Dodgers are going to spend over $40 million per season for the next two years on a guy with a career 3.90 ERA, we’d venture to think Turner isn’t thrilled that he got passed over after seven incredible years in LA, which was capped off with him leading the team to its first title in 32 years.

On top of that, the Dodgers are $30 million past the luxury tax threshold. How much more are they really willing to spend? Are corresponding moves coming to provide payroll relief to bring Turner back? Are they just going to give Turner what he wants since now they’re so far over that it doesn’t really matter?

We have no idea, but the optics here aren’t great, unless JT knew that the Dodgers were going to go for the big fish before moving forward with his contract situation. If they don’t bring him back, there’s no clear cut option on this roster to play third base, and that’s yet another problem.

Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

2. Trevor Bauer isn’t exactly the definition of a role model

Bauer’s been in hot water multiple times, and now it’s the Dodgers’ problem.

From injuring his hand on a drone during the 2016 World Series, to throwing a ball over the center field fence in Kansas City that prompted the Cleveland Indians to trade him, to allegations (and some proof) of online harassment, to his constant desire to publicly put MLB and/or opposing players on blast, Bauer isn’t exactly the kind of front-facing dude you’d want on a bonafide championship contender.

Throw in the fact that we have to endlessly hear about how he “wants to build his brand” and how he’s working tirelessly on his vlogs and player-driven media platform, that’s a ton of off-field exposure that most teams wouldn’t prefer. We’d venture to say Bauer’s brought more negative headlines than positive ones wherever he’s been in his career.

The bad news for the Dodgers? They’re in the second-biggest market in the US and there’s no doubt the spotlight will be burning a hole through Bauer’s forehead when he inevitably does something to attract the wrong kind of attention. This isn’t Arizona. This isn’t Cleveland. This isn’t Cincinnati. When was the last “character” the Dodgers had? We honestly don’t know. At least we don’t know one of this magnitude.

Not to mention, he has his “agent” publicly calling out reports, beat writers, fans, etc. on social media. It’s just not the attention you want brought to your team, especially when you’re trying to make another World Series run. Maybe it slowly goes away and Bauer focuses more of his efforts on the field now that he’s gotten paid, but if things continue on this trajectory, we can bet the Dodgers will be inheriting their fair share of drama. And it won’t go unnoticed.

Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

1. Bauer’s career track record just doesn’t justify record-breaking money

Maybe the Dodgers see otherwise, but Bauer’s numbers are a bit troubling.

OK, for all of you who “don’t care” about off-field concerns, let’s look at some on-field ones, shall we?

Yes, Bauer won the 2020 Cy Young Award. Very good stuff. Congratulations to the man. However, if anyone for a second thinks that he would have ran away with the accolade if he had gotten 20-23 more starts in a regular 162-game season, then we’re not sure what you’re watching, because it’s not baseball, and it’s not Bauer’s overall body of work.

Bauer is 75-64 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 1,279 strikeouts in 205 games (195 starts), totaling 1,190 innings. If you think those numbers justify paying him more than Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, among others, then we’re here to tell you that they don’t.

We totally get that the Dodgers are “betting” he will be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the next two years, but you’re taking that risk based on 11 starts, half of which came against some of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. Aside from the shortened 2020 season, Bauer’s only had ONE other campaign with an ERA below 4.18, and that came in 2018 with the Cleveland Indians. But he only pitched in 28 games to achieve his 2.21 ERA. And he’s only had one season (2019) in which he’s pitched over 200 innings. He debuted in 2012 and had his first full season in 2014. Not a great track record.

On top of that, aside from his performance against the Braves in the NL Wild Card series last year, Bauer’s been bad on the playoffs. He pitched in 10 other games, totaling 26 innings, (as both a starter and reliever) with the Indians before that, and logged a 1-4 record with a 3.81 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. That included taking two losses in the 2016 World Series, which the Indians lost in seven games to the Chicago Cubs.

The Dodgers are betting $40 and $45 million in 2021 and 2022 that they will get the optimal version of Bauer, something the world has yet to see across 30-plus starts or 200-plus innings. And he’s 30 years old. We’re not saying it’s the wrong bet — because we won’t know the outcome for at least another year — but we can safely say that it’s a wildly risky one that leaves the Dodgers exposed to a lot more criticism than it could praise.

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Dodgers: 3 reasons Trevor Bauer deal could blow up in LAD’s face