Dodgers: 3 reasons Trevor Bauer deal could blow up in LAD’s face

1. Bauer’s career track record just doesn’t justify record-breaking money

Maybe the Dodgers see otherwise, but Bauer’s numbers are a bit troubling.

OK, for all of you who “don’t care” about off-field concerns, let’s look at some on-field ones, shall we?

Yes, Bauer won the 2020 Cy Young Award. Very good stuff. Congratulations to the man. However, if anyone for a second thinks that he would have ran away with the accolade if he had gotten 20-23 more starts in a regular 162-game season, then we’re not sure what you’re watching, because it’s not baseball, and it’s not Bauer’s overall body of work.

Bauer is 75-64 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 1,279 strikeouts in 205 games (195 starts), totaling 1,190 innings. If you think those numbers justify paying him more than Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, among others, then we’re here to tell you that they don’t.

We totally get that the Dodgers are “betting” he will be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the next two years, but you’re taking that risk based on 11 starts, half of which came against some of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. Aside from the shortened 2020 season, Bauer’s only had ONE other campaign with an ERA below 4.18, and that came in 2018 with the Cleveland Indians. But he only pitched in 28 games to achieve his 2.21 ERA. And he’s only had one season (2019) in which he’s pitched over 200 innings. He debuted in 2012 and had his first full season in 2014. Not a great track record.

On top of that, aside from his performance against the Braves in the NL Wild Card series last year, Bauer’s been bad on the playoffs. He pitched in 10 other games, totaling 26 innings, (as both a starter and reliever) with the Indians before that, and logged a 1-4 record with a 3.81 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. That included taking two losses in the 2016 World Series, which the Indians lost in seven games to the Chicago Cubs.

The Dodgers are betting $40 and $45 million in 2021 and 2022 that they will get the optimal version of Bauer, something the world has yet to see across 30-plus starts or 200-plus innings. And he’s 30 years old. We’re not saying it’s the wrong bet — because we won’t know the outcome for at least another year — but we can safely say that it’s a wildly risky one that leaves the Dodgers exposed to a lot more criticism than it could praise.

Dodgers: Projecting 2021 starting rotation after Trevor Bauer signing

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