Dodgers: 3 LAD players who still have major leaps to make in 2021

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 27: Will Smith #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers heads to first after hitting a three run home run in the fourth inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium on April 27, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 27: Will Smith #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers heads to first after hitting a three run home run in the fourth inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium on April 27, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
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There are many reasons the Los Angeles Dodgers currently sport a 17-12 record after racing out to a 13-2 start that had fans planning record-setting parades and haters fearing the formation of an unstoppable boulder rolling down the NL West’s mountain.

Injuries? Yes, you can blame those. The Dodgers have lost several stars in succession, as well as some of the men who were ably filling in for them like Zach McKinstry.

It’s clear, though, that there are a few Dodgers who have been able to stay on the field, but still have room to get even better in the coming weeks.

At least, as long as their advanced Statcast metrics are to be believed.

Per the underlying statistics, the Dodgers currently feature several stars who are watching the ball doink in where it should, rocking BABIPs to the sky (shoutout to Justin Turner, who ranks in the upper echelon of basically every metric possible, and is destroying the baseball this year).

There are a few Dodgers on both sides of the ball, though, who should be showing tangible improvement very soon.

Some of them featuring expected batting numbers well above where their statistics currently lie. Some of them are in the upper echelon of all MLBers in terms of velocity, soft contact, and all the elements of an All-Star season, but haven’t quite seen everything fall into place yet.

According to the data we have available, all three of these Dodgers still have another level or two to leap to this offseason.

These 3 Dodgers still have a ways to go to match their Statcast metrics.

Will Smith #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Will Smith #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

3. Will Smith

It’s hard to complain about the effort Will Smith — aka the best catcher in baseball — has given us thus far in 2021, but it certainly could be better (and has been better, based on his metrics).

Up to this point, Smith is triple-slashing .243/.379/.486, which translates to a WOBA (weighted on-base average) of .368. His expected WOBA, though? All the way up at .414, red-hot and in the top 8% of all batters in MLB.

Yes, Smith is underperforming his expected results by nearly 50 points.

Is there an easy adjustment for our catcher to make to catch up to his batted-ball profile? Well, it would seem so; Smith is letting more meatballs go by than almost any other Dodgers hitter. While Corey Seager swings at a remarkable 95.8% of pitches right down the pike (wow, brag), and hitters like Justin Turner (79.4%) and Mookie Betts (78.7%) are swinging at their fair share, Smith only hacks at 65% of such offerings.

Smith isn’t alone, though. Perhaps he’s laying off those meatballs for a reason, since no one across MLB seems to be hitting them squarely anyway?

As the Dodgers round the corner into May, the bottom line is that Smith is performing well, but watching too many meatballs while waiting for his advanced metrics to catch up to his counting numbers.

We’ll take it, but better times should be ahead.

Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

2. Corey Seager

Corey Seager’s solutions here aren’t quite as cut-and-dried as Smith’s, but there’s still reason to believe in his metrics.

Thus far in 2021, Seager is hitting a mere .257 with a .352 OBP and .459 SLG, slightly below what the Dodgers are looking for from the man who was their playoff centerpiece in 2020. Many of his underlying statistics, though, place him right in line with the man who carried the team last fall.

Seager’s average exit velocity has fallen only slightly, from 93.2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, both well up from his 88.8 average in 2019. His WOBA sits at .351, but his xWOBA is nearly 50 points higher at .396. That’s a big gap for our guy to make up as things normalize a bit.

Unfortunately, it seems like pitchers thus far have attempted to attack Seager differently after he proved himself flammable in October 2020. He’s seeing more breaking balls and fewer fastballs than ever before.

Corey Seager’s MLB Statcast Batted Ball Profile
Corey Seager’s MLB Statcast Batted Ball Profile /

The good news? He’s chasing less often than he did even in 2020 (30.3% of the time in ’20 to 27.8% this time around).

It seems Seager’s still adjusting to what he’s facing, but he’s doing it fairly well, hitting the ball almost as hard as last season while chasing pitches out of the zone less often.

Keep checking those X stats.

Jimmy Nelson #40 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Jimmy Nelson #40 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

1. Jimmy Nelson

Dodgers reliever Jimmy Nelson — whose nickname is apparently “Big Sweat”? (cool) — is having a solid comeback season thus far, his strenuous two innings against the San Diego Padres excluded.

17 whiffs in 12 innings with his big breaker will certainly play, though his 1.58 WHIP is a bit worrisome, and there’s room for improvement in his good-not-great 3.75 ERA.

Luckily, advanced metrics to the rescue!

Fans should be patient with Nelson, who’s towards the end of a long road back from multiple devastating injuries, but isn’t all the way settled yet — and he’s a starter by trade, too, so this whole bullpen thing is new for him. Combined, batters are hitting .227 off Nelson with a somewhat-unsightly .370 OBP.

If Nelson can just reduce the walks, though, he’ll be set. Why? His expected batting numbers against are even better … by a large margin.

.147 XBA. Minuscule. .243 XSLG. .265 XWOBACON. Nelson is, by all metrics, a few tweaks away from being one of the best multi-inning relievers in all of baseball.

That slugging mark ranks in the top 5% of all MLB pitchers, the XWOBACON ranks at 4%, and the XBA is in the top 3%. Of everyone who’s appeared in a game this year.

Stay settled, Big Sweat. Big things are on the horizon for you.

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