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Dodgers may soon find out Trevor Bauer wasn’t worth record-setting contract

ByThomas Carannante|
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 31: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 31: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

We’ve previously touched on this, but the reasons why some thought the Los Angeles Dodgers giving Trevor Bauer a record-setting contract that featured $40 million per season would backfire didn’t have to do with him losing a serious edge.

Instead, it toed around that discussion. Before arriving in LA, taking everything into account, Bauer was a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Nothing special. Didn’t blow you away. He’s had just one full season with an ERA below 4.18, and that came in 2018 when he appeared in 28 games (27 of which were starts).

We’re not taking his Cy Young-winning 2020 campaign away from him, but add 20-22 starts to that year and anyone would believe he doesn’t maintain a 1.73 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. It just wouldn’t happen.

Not to mention, facing mostly lowly AL Central teams will surely help boost those numbers.

Now, though? If MLB is truly going to crack down on the use of foreign substances as strictly as some believe, Bauer might just revert to the mortal he was with the Cleveland Indians.

We’re already witnessing a steep decline in his spin rate. It’s a one-game sample size, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this were a sign of what’s to come.

If Trevor Bauer loses his spin rate, are the Dodgers in trouble?

During and after the 2019 season, Bauer paraded around, letting the world know that there’s one way to gain a competitive advantage by increasing one’s spin rate, which is exactly what he surmised the Houston Astros were doing (which they likely were). That would be using foreign substances to improve one’s grip, which, in turn, creates more spin and better control.

We’re not going to doubt Bauer’s knowledge. He’s big on analytics and is constantly studying trends and numbers to help better define and unlock secrets to pitching.

So what did Bauer do in 2020? He went ahead and increased his spin rate considerably. From 2019 to 2020, his four-seamer witnessed a jump from an average of 2,410 to an average of 2,779. Wonder how that happened?

Bauer was actually asked this past weekend about his spin rate increase over the last two seasons and here’s what he had to say:

"“I’ve made a lot of public comments. If you want to go research it and make your own decision, go for it.”"

And what did Bauer’s decreased spin rate on Sunday result in? A loss to the Atlanta Braves in what we could consider one of his worst starts of the year. He allowed a season-high seven hits and four walks and faced 28 batters in the six innings he threw (his season-high is 29 batters faced, but that came in an eight-inning outing against the Brewers back on April 29).

Bauer couldn’t have asked for a better time to hit free agency. As for the Dodgers? Well, they perhaps should’ve been more wary. We know it’s only money and it doesn’t really matter, but if Bauer begins to slide considerably and reverts back to a No. 3-4 starter if his spin rate continues to decline as a result of MLB’s new crackdown, the Dodgers are going to wish they took Bauer’s larger body of work more seriously in negotiations — or, better yet, let him walk to the Mets instead.

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