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Dodgers: 3 Gavin Lux trades LA should pull off after Trea Turner deal

By Adam Weinrib |
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 06: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on July 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 06: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on July 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 02: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers calls for the ball on an out of Daulton Varsho #12 of the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on September 02, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 02: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers calls for the ball on an out of Daulton Varsho #12 of the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on September 02, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Do the Los Angeles Dodgers still see a place for Gavin Lux long-term, or have they gone fully star-blind?

Once you have a player like Trea Turner in your uniform for a day or two, it becomes all the more difficult to envision a future without him. It also gets tougher to imagine settling for a front-row seat to former top prospect Gavin Lux’s continued development when you can simply hand over a check to one of the league’s best instead.

So, let’s say the Dodgers go for it, as they have so often in recent history. Let’s say they buckle down and let Turner reach his walk year without an extension, instead paying Corey Seager $240 million for six years. Let’s say they pledge to Turner that they’re going to take care of him at season’s end, too. He swallows his pride and agrees to move to second base — knowing full well Seager will probably have to transfer there full-time in a year or two anyway.

Is there any place the Dodgers can send Lux, then, where he’ll be more appreciated?

Of course! People pay for pedigree in this game, and Lux has an overflowing amount of it. A consensus top-five prospect in the game as recently as 2019, he’s now posted three fairly underwhelming MLB campaigns, though, the longest of which has been this 82-game semi-slog in 2021.

Even a somewhat disappointing top prospect has real value, though, and Lux’s snoozer of a 2021 season has still been worth 1.5 WAR thanks in part to his defensive acumen and versatility. That’s roughly equivalent to one DJ LeMahieu.

If the Dodgers decide to save money and select Seager over Turner, or vice versa, then Lux will be the favorite to man second base in 2022. If the team pledges to go all-in? This might be time to sell their homegrown talent, with his value still somewhat maximized.

Also, extend Max Scherzer. What’ve you got to lose?

These 3 Gavin Lux trades make sense for the Dodgers after the Trea Turner trade.

3. Yankees-Dodgers Gavin Lux Swap

Still not sure Gleyber Torres is a shortstop, but don’t want to spend top dollar on Trevor Story? Then perhaps Gavin Lux is the acquisition for you! At the very least, he’ll bring rock-solid defense and an upgrade over Tyler Wade to the table.

For years, the Yankees have watched their infielders fall victim to soft-tissue injuries, followed by hard-tissue accidents, and they’ve never really shored things up significantly beyond the front lines. Lux, in exchange for some 40-man casualties, could be the move here.

This offseason, the Yankees will have a few intriguing Rule 5-eligible arms to offload, though they already took care of a few at the 2021 deadline. The Dodgers will be aiming comparatively high with Lux, and will certainly be asking for a top-10 prospect from New York, something they can have in the form of RHP Yoendrys Gomez. Perhaps, to sweeten the pot, the Dodgers can ask for a pitching prospect who either has to be added to the roster or shipped out for free?

We’re looking at Randy Vasquez, who was nearly included in the Joey Gallo trade until someone got cold feet at the last second. He’s entirely overmatched the High-A level, whiffing 38 men in 23 innings alongside a 2.74 ERA. That pair of projectable arms for Lux, as opposed to a “junk-for-junk” sell-low trade, makes a modicum of sense for both sides.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 28: Nick Maton #29 of the Philadelphia Phillies has his hat and glove inspected for foreign substances by umpire Tripp Gibson in the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 28, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 28: Nick Maton #29 of the Philadelphia Phillies has his hat and glove inspected for foreign substances by umpire Tripp Gibson in the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 28, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

2. Gavin Lux to the Phillies

The sad truth is Lux hasn’t necessarily earned a starting job anywhere in MLB yet, and anyone who gifts him a gig next offseason will be taking a bit of a risk.

Maybe the Dodgers can get the Phillies to bite on adding Lux as depth instead, considering they’ve had a massive problem with their second line of infielders and they have a starting role that can be captured with a particularly impressive few months.

Didi Gregorius is only signed on to be the Phils’ starting shortstop through 2022, and the first year of his multi-year contract has not gone smoothly. The 31-year-old former defensive wizard has been worth negative WAR (-0.5), and his OPS+ of 82 is well below-average. There’s certainly a chance, if the trend continues, that Gregorius will be on the verge of losing his job midway through next season; at least, it’s far more likely that’ll happen than either Turner and Seager bows out of Los Angeles.

Beyond Gregorius, the Phillies have Ronald Torreyes and Nick Maton holding down backup infield spots, two players Lux would present an upgrade over.

What would it cost to find a match here? Maybe No. 7 prospect Casey Martin (SS) and No. 17 prospect Mauricio Llovera, a righty who recently made his MLB debut (and gave up three homers to the Mets, let’s not discuss) could work. Perhaps the Phils and Dodgers could swap reclamation projects and include former No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak as a supplementary piece? Worth discussing the possibility for sure, though Lux has performed at the big-league level and holds much higher value. The focus would not be on Moniak here, but the conversation makes sense.

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 04: Matt Olson #28 and Josh Harrison #1 of the Oakland Athletics celebrates after Olson hit a walk-off two-run RBI double in the bottom of the tenth inning to defeat the San Diego Padres 5-4 at RingCentral Coliseum on August 04, 2021 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 04: Matt Olson #28 and Josh Harrison #1 of the Oakland Athletics celebrates after Olson hit a walk-off two-run RBI double in the bottom of the tenth inning to defeat the San Diego Padres 5-4 at RingCentral Coliseum on August 04, 2021 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

1. Gavin Lux to the A’s

The Oakland Athletics love three things: banking on talent, bringing in middle infield stopgaps, and selling high on their existing stars.

That’s why there’s a good chance they could be interested in a buy-low Lux deal, and why is also seems likely the Dodgers could…pry…Matt Chapman loose in this trade by expanding it? No. We wouldn’t dare.

If Andrew Friedman doesn’t do it, though, someone will. The Gold Glover seems as good as gone.

For now, we’ll ignore the scenario where Chapman is acquired as Justin Turner insurance and the Dodgers send over Lux nearly one-for-one. As we see it, Andrew Friedman should probably target Oakland’s trio of top-10 shortstop prospects: Nick Allen (No. 3), Logan Davidson (No. 5) and 18-year-old Robert Puason (No. 6).

Allen likely is too close to entrenching himself at the MLB level on an extremely cheap contract, so he’s likely close to untouchable. Puason is a lottery ticket, and one the A’s would probably like to continue to bank on. The slumping Davidson (.207 average with six homers at Double-A in his age-23 season) is probably the most likely centerpiece.

We’ll supplement the ex-Clemson Tiger with righty Tyler Baum, the team’s 14th-best prospect who’s languishing below Single-A right now?

Or…we could just circle back and revisit the Chapman trade talks. The Dodgers could use as many elite defenders as possible, and LA’s been a fairly solid destination to get your groove back in recent years. The former All-Star (2019) comes with two full years of control after 2021, and is currently in the midst of his only season with an OPS+ below 100. Just something to think about. Sure we’re not the first ones to consider it.

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