Dodgers free agents: Predicting which FAs stay and which leave LA

The Los Angeles Dodgers ultimately fell short of becoming the first back-to-back World Series Champions since 2000 in 2021. While the team had the talent, it ran into a red-hot Braves team that was able to outlast LA.

Now the Dodgers are going to the drawing board for an offseason that could shape the future of the team. More so than any other year, the Dodgers have a lot of questions that must be answered about free agency, particularly who the team brings back.

A big external signing doesn’t seem likely for LA, as they are more likely to focus on bringing certain players back and then attacking the 2022 MLB trade deadline.

Not every Los Angeles Dodgers free agent is going to return to LA, though.

While the Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and a seemingly unlimited budget, the team won’t be able to bring back every single free agent this offseason. Some will get bigger deals from other teams, while others might pursue a bigger role with other teams, such as Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez last winter.

There are nine important free agents that you should know about as a Dodger fan: Clayton Kershaw,  Max Scherzer, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, Albert Pujols, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson and Joe Kelly (club option). The other, lesser names won’t really impact the future of the team.

Dodger fans better buckle in and be ready for an eventful offseason. Let’s predict the fate of all nine important free agents, starting with the trio of non-closer relievers.

Dodgers free agents: The trio of relievers

Kenley Jansen obviously gets his own discussion in this article. On this page, we’ll discuss the future of Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson.

Joe Kelly: Stays in LA (on a new deal)

The Dodgers could simply opt into the last year of Joe Kelly’s deal and pay him $12 million next season. While Kelly has become a big fan-favorite on the Dodgers and pitched really well last season, it is hard to justify paying that much money for a reliever.

Personally, I am not a fan of paying big money for any non-closer reliever, and even then it is usually a mistake, as relievers can be so volatile. In a perfect world, the Dodgers opt out of the one year for $12 million and instead offer him a multi-year, incentive-based deal that does not have as big of a luxury tax hit.

I would like to see something around two years for $15 million with the ability to earn upwards of $20 million if he stays healthy. Kelly, being a Rancho Cucamonga native, should be inclined to stay home and take the deal.

Corey Knebel: Stay in LA

Knebel struggled a bit in the postseason but he proved to be a big cog in the Dodgers’ bullpen. Ironically enough, Knebel getting hurt and missing most of the season kept him from being priced out of LA.

The Dodgers should be able to bring Knebel back on a rather affordable one-year deal.

Jimmy Nelson: Leaves LA

The reclamation project of all reclamation projects has not panned out. While Jimmy Nelson has shown a lot of potential, he just has not been able to shake the injury bug. He did not pitch at all in 2020, and while he appeared in 2021, his season ended prematurely because of injury.

Nelson underwent Tommy John Surgery as well as surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. His pitching career in the big leagues might be over.

Kenley Jansen: Leaves the Dodgers

Just some transparency here: I am one of the biggest Kenley Jansen fans that you will meet. When Dodger fans started to turn against Jansen and expected him to regress, I was right there in his corner, preaching about how he was still a valuable closer.

He proved that in 2021 with another great season. He had one rough stretch in July that accounted for most of his runs during the year. In fact, it was the last time that Jansen allowed a run all season.

Jansen finished with a 2.22 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP and an 11.2 SO/9 rate. He was even better in the postseason, throwing seven scoreless innings with three hits, one walk (intentional) and 14 strikeouts.

While I want to take a victory lap about Jansen, I also have to realize that he is likely not going to be a Dodger in 2022, for two reasons.

First (and more importantly), Jansen is going to get big money from another team in free agency. Teams that lack a true closer will see his numbers and offer him a three-year deal worth a pretty penny. He probably won’t get the five-year, $80 million deal he got from the Dodgers in 2016, but he should get something around three years, $40-45 million.

There is no way the Dodgers offer that. Not only do they have to pay players in other areas, but this is a front office that is analytically driven and is not likely to pay a closer that much. Heck, the previous contract they gave him was reportedly an ownership call. If the front office was against paying Jansen that much in his prime, do we really think they will open up the checkbook while he is 34?

The second reason (and this might be looking into it too much) is the fan relationship with Jansen. There is no way he didn’t see everything that fans said about him, and he definitely heard them when they booed him at home. If I’m Kenley, I don’t want to return to LA.

Chris Taylor: Leaves the Dodgers

Chris Taylor had a career year in 2021, making his first All-Star Game and then becoming the one player the Dodgers could rely on in the postseason. His walk-off home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card Game was the moment of his career, and while he was not perfect, he was the one Dodger who produced in October as we expected.

His baserunning error in Game 1 of the NLCS may or may not have cost the game, but who knows. The good outweighs the bad, and Taylor has undoubtedly increased his worth with a great year and October.

This is going to be similar to what happened with Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson. Both players wanted to find a place where they could have an everyday role and both players thrived because of it.

Taylor has stepped up as the Dodgers’ super utility man and got great playing time because of it, but I would be hard-pressed to believe that he doesn’t want to be an everyday starter. There absolutely will be a team that is willing to pay him a pretty penny to play him in that role, and the Dodgers just cannot combat that.

There is one route in which Taylor could possibly re-join the Dodgers. There is a world in which the Dodgers can sign Taylor to be the full-time third baseman with Justin Turner transitioning to designated hitter, assuming the universal DH comes in 2022. Then, against lefties, the Dodgers could play Pujols at DH, Turner at third and Taylor at second base.

That is a big “if,” though.

Max Scherzer: Stays with the Dodgers

Max Scherzer had a no-trade clause with the Washington Nationals, and it was clear that he wanted to be traded to a team that he could end his career with. Granted, the Dodgers have to offer Scherzer a contract for that to be the reality, but chances are he stays in LA past the 2021 season.

The question becomes how much the Dodgers should be willing to pay him. The team has a fair amount of money coming off the books, particularly if Trevor Bauer is suspended by the league and his contract does not impact the luxury tax number.

The Dodgers could afford to pay Scherzer on a three-year, $100 million contract. That is a lot of money for a player who is 37 and just had dead arm in the playoffs, but the Dodgers are a billion-dollar franchise that can maneuver around the money.

The team can work with deferments to make it easier against the cap. The team has deferred money before, and it would not be shocking if they paid Scherzer around $25 million a year with $25 million in total deferments.

Regardless of what the number is, the Dodgers can afford it and should have a leg-up on other possible suitors for Mad Max. If the Dodgers were willing to pay Rich Hill $16 million per year, then they probably will be willing to pay Max Scherzer $25 million per year.

Clayton Kershaw: Stays with Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw is a free agent yet again, and there are some scared fans that are worried he will suit up in something other than Dodger blue in 2022. Personally, I think that is impossible. I will go out on a limb and say that there is a zero percent chance that Clayton Kershaw pitches for a different MLB team in 2022.

Why? Well, let’s think about the situation that Kershaw is in. Kershaw, although clearly the greatest player in Dodgers franchise history, is coming off of a huge injury season that undoubtedly lowered his value on the open market.

The Dodgers are going to be able to re-sign him for cheaper, and suddenly a “hometown discount” does not even seem like it would be that much of a discount at all.

Second of all, Kershaw has absolutely nothing to prove. He is already a bonafide first-ballot Hall of Famer who has won his World Series ring. If he was still chasing a ring, that would be one thing. I could see him taking a huge one-year, high-salary deal with another contending team to try and win a ring.

That is not the case anymore, and plus, the Dodgers are one of the best teams (if not the best team) to be on to contend for a championship!

There is no reason for Kershaw to uproot his family and go pitch for a team like Atlanta or Boston that is probably going to pay him around the same as the Dodgers. The only potential threat is him returning home to the Texas Rangers, but is he really going to go play for one of the worst teams in the league instead of contending for another World Series?

That is a move he can make when he is 37 years old. It is more likely that Kershaw retires than it is that he pitches on another team in 2022.

Corey Seager: Leaves the Dodgers

The Dodgers might not have been the 2020 World Series Champions if it was not for Corey Seager. Seager had one of the hottest postseasons in MLB history and was hugely impactful in both the NLCS and the World Series. He has become a Dodger legend for life with that performance.

As good as Seager is and as big of a fan favorite as he is, it is hard to see the Dodgers forking over the money it will take to bring him back. Yes, the team is a billion-dollar franchise and can afford it, but ownership still needs to be smart with their money.

When healthy, Seager is one of the best shortstops in MLB. Teams know that and there are going to be insane offers for the left-handed slugging shortstop. He is likely going to sign a deal for at least $250 million.

As much as I love Seager, that just is not worth it. He gets hurt way too much to justify paying a quarter of a billion dollars to. At some point ,you are who you are in the league, and Seager seems to be a really good player who cannot play 150 games in a season.

The Dodgers traded extra prospects to get Trea Turner in the Scherzer deal for a reason. Quite frankly, it seems much more likely that the Dodgers strike on a new contract with him over Seager to be the future shortstop of the team.

Perhaps I am wrong and the Dodgers trust in Seager’s ability to stay healthy and produce. But when the dust settles, it seems likely that he will be a Yankee.