3 ways Dodgers can spend Trevor Bauer’s money in 2022
If all goes well this offseason, ex-Los Angeles Dodgers payroll commitment Trevor Bauer will be moving on from baseball and reinvesting in a top-notch camera on a troll’s budget so he can keep his web series going.
The bad news? Bauer opted into his contract for 2022 (of course he did), prepared to fight The Man to get what’s his.
The good news? If the criminal investigation ends in a way that’s, uh, not sympathetic to Bauer, MLB will void that contract, and the Dodgers will have $32 million worth of base salary to play around with for both 2022 and 2023.
$32 million can pay for an awful lot, instead of what it’s currently paying for, which is a lot of awful.
For the moment, we’re choosing to live surrounded by joy and comfort this holiday season, and we’re going to occupy a world where all future commitments to Bauer get voided by a higher power. No matter what the courts decide, there were far more helpful ways to spend the money afforded to the right-hander last offseason.
At the time, the Dodgers were viewed as having an unimpeachable “super rotation,” and we all ignored the fact that they locked themselves into a bidding war with the Mets and the Mets alone. As it turned out, Steve Cohen’s Mets were supposed to be “different,” but they weren’t. The Dodgers lowered themselves to the depths of the sport only to see Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May go down, Tony Gonsolin and David Price be largely unable to contribute, and Walker Buehler and Julio Urías tire by October. A midseason trade for two months of Max Scherzer ended up not only being a luxury, but a necessity — and now, some are projecting his salary as high as $50 million annually.
The Dodgers might pay the price there (well, not that price, but a hefty one). They might also bring back Kershaw. If they have Bauer’s money to play with, they can use it to supplement those pursuits … or bring in these shiny new additions, considering Scherzer/Kershaw/Kenley Jansen might not even be enough depth.
Here are 3 ways the Dodgers can spend Trevor Bauer’s 2022 salary.
3. Andrew Heaney ($8.5 million) and Justin Verlander
We’re baking Andrew Heaney into this offseason pie mostly because we’re having trouble reckoning with the idea that he’d be taking anyone else’s money other than Bauer’s. We get it. The guy with the elite fastball spin is going to suddenly figure it out at the age of 31 after one more person tells him to stop throwing middle-middle. Robbie Ray used to strike out 245 people a year. Heaney’s never done that. If he’s the reason Kershaw walks, we riot.
But we digress.
In this scenario, Andrew Friedman has a lot more money to play with, so it’s totally OK that he jumped the gun and paid for everybody’s favorite project of the 2021-22 offseason. For the rest of the $32 million commitment … how about overpaying slightly for World Series champion Justin Verlander, who’s trying to exceed the $18.4 million Houston owes him via the qualifying offer?
$23 million for two years could be enough to woo JV in the Max Scherzer role — and if they can get Scherzer, too, what a coup! A very Dodgers-like coup, instead of attempting to scratch and claw.
Verlander, at his worst, will probably hit 94 or 95 while attempting to regain his control in April and May. The first few months back from Tommy John are typically the hardest.
At his best? He’ll be a bonafide ace. He’s one of the unquestioned greatest in recent MLB history, and he has a Tom Brady-like desire to pitch until the age of 45. Is anyone willing to go on record doubting him?
You could certainly find worse uses for found money.
2. Marcus Semien and Mark Canha
Expect Marcus Semien to get a significant raise on the $18 million he made last year on a one-year pact in Toronto, but … mostly in terms of years of security.
If the Dodgers are so worried about signing Corey Seager and having to move him off short or messing with Trea Turner’s mojo, why not just pay Semien $26 million AAV for five years, move him to second base (where he grades out better anyway), and extend Turner for six or seven seasons? Win-win-win. You’d be getting an elite power/speed/contact combo in the ex-Jays MVP candidate who reportedly prefers the West Coast.
Of course, you would be getting him coming off his greatest season, but … he’s freshly 31. Perhaps he’s peaking, and can keep the window open for another two or three years at least before fading a bit. 45 home runs and 7.2 WAR is hard to argue against, especially because he’s also coming off a third-place MVP finish in 2019 (2020 never happened). Yes, he’s only had two seasons with an OPS+ above 100, but they’ve both just occurred. He might just keep rolling.
As for the rest of the available money? How about a roving, slugging outfield option to lengthen that rotation and round out the bench? Semien’s former A’s teammate Mark Canha is available, and has been practically begging for more exposure on a contender these past few years. He’s posted an OPS+ mark over 111 in each of the past four years, peaking at 146 in 2019. Maybe two years and $14 million to inevitably fill in for AJ Pollock when he goes down and play ~115-120 games?
1. Robbie Ray, Eddie Rosario, and a Little Treat?
The biggest pitching name on the free agent market this year, long-term? Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have the recognition and pedigree, but in terms of “big bets” moving forward, Ray will probably get the most security.
Not at a sky high price, though. Sure, he’s about to win the Cy Young Award in the AL, but he’s only shown us one year of heightened control (1.045 WHIP after mostly living in the 1.3s during his previous full seasons). Does six years, $120 million sound right? That’s just $20 million annually.
Ray sounds like a luxury item, but … even if he turns to dust a little bit, the Dodgers are one of very few teams that can afford to pay for the regression. They need high-strikeout arms that can soak innings. This rotation, against all odds, isn’t just an ace away. If Ray is a 3.5-WAR pitcher in 2022 instead of a 6+-WAR guy, that won’t torpedo the Dodgers’ plans. It’ll still be valuable.
As for the other $12 million? How about two years and $24 million for Eddie Rosario, which would really rub things in the Braves’ faces? With the universal DH likely coming to the National League, too, Rosario could start ~130 games a year in left/right/the bat-only spot. If you’re able to secure him for slightly less money, maybe the runoff goes to a bullpen piece like Daniel Hudson or Mychal Givens on the super cheap?
Bottom line, there are plenty of ways to spend this money, all of which would help Los Angeles’ depth more than the person it’s currently ticketed towards.