Could 2022 still be Cody Bellinger’s final year with Dodgers?

The curious case of Cody Bellinger left him 1.5 WAR below zero in 2021, but with freshly-renewed playoff hero status for the Dodgers, who ended up rewarding him handsomely rather than letting him hit the open market with a non-tender.

On the surface, it certainly looks to rival fans like Bellinger was rewarded for an absolutely brutal year, finishing at .165 and often looking lost, yet somehow adding a $17 million one-year contract and $900,000 raise to his ledger.

In reality, though, was this contract anything more than a preemptive fence-mending, as Bellinger’s arbitration costs rise?

The Dodgers took care of business, sure. But is Bellinger’s future more likely to be in LA post-Christmas than it was back in September? Did Bellinger’s postseason earn him anything more than one final shot before Andrew Friedman tries to trade him again before the 2023 season, or allow him to reach his walk year the next winter without any obvious plans for an extension?

Just before Christmas (during the lockout?!), word leaked that Friedman had taken care of Bellinger, rewarding his .412 NLCS spree with a one-year, $17 million contract to avoid any post-lockout battle. But was it really a show of faith?

Will Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers come to an agreement for 2023, too?

Spoiler alert: if Bellinger had opted into an arbitration hearing, he would not have enjoyed what Dodgers management and their team of lawyers would’ve had to say about his 2021 season. It would’ve sounded like a particularly vicious version of Jimmy Kimmel’s “Mean Tweets”.

As far as we see it, the Dodgers spending $17 million without a commitment for anything further doesn’t represent a sweeping show of faith in Bellinger, nor does it take a post-2022 trade off the table. Simply put, LA doesn’t have enough trusted outfield depth to shed Belli before the season even begins, and they also don’t have enough recent data to justify a hefty multi-year payday or extension. There are too many holes looming to lock in long-term with someone who might just pack up and post a 45 OPS+ in a full season.

Bellinger is the west coast Gary Sánchez, except for his peak was far higher. The 2019 Bellinger vintage isn’t so far in the past that we’ve forgotten, but 2021 was far too bleak for an offseason extension to be on the menu. LA won’t move on until they’ve seen another disastrous season — and, even at that point, they might see more benefit in playing it year to year.

Bellinger’s surprisingly expensive 2022 deal says next to nothing about his long-term future in LA, and he could certainly be a non-tender candidate after the season if the team struggles to fill out the rotation and must allocate more resources elsewhere.

His playoff performance gave us a reason to believe, though, and might’ve swayed the Dodgers to take care of business before the lockout cut off all contact.

Dodgers: Projecting 2022 arbitration salaries for all eligible players

Here are the projected 2022 salaries for every Los Angeles Dodgers player who's arbitration-eligible. Cody Bellinger and Trea Turner lead the way.