Projecting Dodgers’ free agent contracts after MLB Lockout ends

The Los Angeles Dodgers were lucky to get their Chris Taylor contract done when they did, locking in the versatile Swiss Army knife for four years and $60 million to help flesh out their outfield/infield picture amid so much other uncertainty.

Unfortunately, this offseason still seems destined to be more about departures than additions — whenever it resumes.

Max Scherzer filled an ace role that won’t be replicated by anyone on the market. Say what you will about Corey Seager’s price tag and Gavin Lux’s potential, but Seager was an icon in this city. He didn’t take home two consecutive postseason series MVPs by accident. He’ll be missed.

No matter what the Dodgers are able to accomplish from this point forth, it’ll be a mission to fill holes with versatile options and bridge the gap until the farm system is replenished. Diego Cartayas don’t grow on trees, but there are far fewer sure things in town without Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray.

All that being said … no, the Dodgers won’t be taking a willing step back next season! They still have unparalleled star power. They still have a top of the rotation that’ll make anyone jealous. And they still have financial might to flex, at a time when most teams in baseball do not (in actuality or by choice).

There are versions of this Dodgers offseason that end with Freddie Freeman at first base. Just because we’re not projecting it does not mean it’s impossible. We still drop it in the irrational column, but Freeman’s obvious dissatisfaction with the Braves’ pre-lockout offers indicates this is something closer than a pipe dream.

As for LA’s other needs? We think they’ll add a starter via trade, and perhaps an upper echelon one at that, but will not be signing one. After all, beyond Carlos Rodon, that market’s nearly dry. We’ll cover trade additions soon (stay tuned), but these are the contracts we see the Dodgers doling out before Opening Day.

Projecting Dodgers’ free agent contracts after MLB Lockout ends.

3. Jonathan Villar: One Year, $4 Million

Jonathan Villar isn’t the sexiest name in the book, but with an eye on creating versatility for the 2022 Dodgers, he has it in spades. He’s also got speed.

Assuming the worst on Max Muncy, the season might begin with the veteran slugger on the shelf. That might mean Cody Bellinger to first, Chris Taylor to the outfield, Gavin Lux at short and someone like Villar at second. Add in a Justin Turner injury or an AJ Pollock issue, and Villar would theoretically start to see much more playing time far sooner than he might’ve expected.

Our contract projection here has the Dodgers handing out a slight raise after an exemplary 2021 season, one which Villar played for the New York Mets under a one-year, $3.5 million deal.

He certainly deserves a raise based on his play alone, as he posted 1.7 WAR and a 102 OPS+ in 454 at-bats playing third, second and short. Villar did steal a surprisingly low 14 bags after swiping 16 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 and 40 in his most recent full season with the 2019 Baltimore Orioles (when, it should be noted, he played a full 162 games and was somehow never dealt away from a last-place opponent).

If Villar’s a floundering team’s everyday solution and they’re willing to shell out an extra million or two, fine. But we project the Dodgers to be able to get modest and occasionally impressive production at a number of positions at a fraction of the cost of some bench options.

Frankly, we’d rather have Villar manning third base in a pinch than Edwin Rios. Remember how many wild swings LA took to find infield depth midway through last season, including Tío Albert? We rest our case.

1. Trea Turner: 8 Years, $240 Million

OK, we’re slightly cheating here. Only slightly! We’re just claiming the Dodgers will use their remaining cash to ink Trea Turner one year ahead of schedule.

Unless they plan on radically pivoting and welcoming Carlos Correa home with open arms, this is really the only viable shortstop maneuver that’ll be available to Andrew Friedman for several seasons. So why not polish it off now before the rest of the league wakes up and realizes that?

The Dodgers’ final equivalent “free agency move” this offseason, in our eyes, will be to officially welcome Turner to the family long-term after shying away from dipping into Corey Seager’s market for a full decade. Is eight years and $280 million enough to land Turner? We won’t know for sure until after the latest CBA dictates how high teams have to go to pass the luxury tax threshold and whether competition increases or decreases. $30 million AAV for a 29-year-old who relies on speed after Seager signed for only a slightly higher AAV ($32.5 million) at a younger age (27) feels correct, though.

It also feels essential for the Dodgers, who won’t want to cross Carlos Correa’s $300 million rubicon for the next decade, especially after he spent the years 2017-2021 trashing everything that Los Angeles stands for.

We would consider paying him. We’re not sure the front office would. For now, extending Turner and making that your splash feels like a likelier move.

If the Dodgers wait until next offseason and Turner bolts after winning a bidding war between superpowers, LA’s only options will be Dansby Swanson OR Xander Bogaerts, assuming he declines his player option to reunite with Mookie Betts (unlikely). Take the sure thing now.

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