What would a fair Dodgers-Kenley Jansen contract look like?

First, reports made their rounds suggesting closer Kenley Jansen wasn’t expected to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers and that the Miami Marlins were among the teams ready to pay him one last lucrative contract. This was shortly after the lockout commenced and moves could no longer be made.

Then, about a month later, we had some conflicting information suggesting that the Dodgers had actually tried to bring Jansen back during that month after the season ended. Ok then…

Whatever the case, the Dodgers can’t afford to go into 2022 with the bullpen as currently constructed. As of now, they’re without Jansen, Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson, all of whom played varying key roles last season. And though the bullpen was statistically good, it didn’t exactly present itself as a rock solid unit. It was more shaky than anything.

With so few options available in free agency, it’d be smart for the Dodgers to bring Jansen back for the sake of continuity and the fact he should probably be a Dodger for life since he’s going to go down as one of the best closers of all time.

The problem is working out a deal that’s favorable for both sides. Jansen deserves to be paid, but entering his age-34 season, the price shouldn’t be excessive, especially with all of the other needs the Dodgers must address at the moment.

What would a fair contract look like for the Dodgers and Kenley Jansen?

This shouldn’t be anything beyond a two-year contract, simply because of Jansen’s age and the fact he’ll be commanding over $10 million per season. He’s coming off a five-year, $80 million contract that paid him $16 million a year, but that’s simply too high a price at the moment since sandwiched in his last deal were three career-worst campaigns from 2018-2020.

And with Blake Treinen, who’s been as good, if not more reliable, than Jansen over the last two seasons, making $8 million per year, it’ll be hard to pay the right-hander that much more than what LA’s setup man has been making (since he also possesses the capability to close games).

So who says no to a two-year, $20 million contract with a team option for a third year ($13 million with a $3 million buyout)?

That guarantees Jansen $23 million over the next two seasons, giving him a very fair AAV, and if he continues to pitch well into his mid-to-late 30s then the Dodgers will have no problem paying that price in 2024. Either that, or they can pick up the option and trade him when the time comes.

The fact of the matter is Jansen’s strikeout numbers are declining and his 3.08 FIP was nearly a full run higher than his 2.22 ERA, indicating he wasn’t exactly as untouchable as the surface numbers may have suggested. Throw in a career high walk percentage of 12.9%, and the shortcomings are obvious.

But there’s a way to appease both parties, and we think this deal can keep the relationship going.

Conflicting report flips script on Dodgers-Kenley Jansen discourse

At first, it was believed the Los Angeles Dodgers weren't going to bring back Kenley Jansen ... but here come the good old conflicting reports!