3 young Dodgers players teams could buy low on in trade talks

MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 06: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers in action against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on July 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 06: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers in action against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on July 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
1 of 3
Next
Zach McKinstry #8 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
Zach McKinstry #8 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

The Los Angeles Dodgers trotted out an awful lot of Triple-A stars in 2022, and very few of them worked out the way Andrew Friedman and Co. intended.

Clearly, there was a reason they were in that position in the first place, though. Their elevation came because their minor-league indicators hinted they were ready. The Dodgers believed in these players — and, if they’re made available in trade, you’ll find out the rest of the league does, too.

If LA’s looking to move on from this trio, they had better make sure they’re not cutting bait at the wrong time for convenience’s sake.

The Dodgers’ farm system appears to be at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. Capped by Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray for so long, Diego Cartaya’s contingent and the 2020-21 draftees are now rocketing up the board.

Has the system “thinned out”? Well, not so much; according to Baseball America, the Dodgers are still superior to nearly every club in terms of netting top-100 prospects. Last year was not a banner campaign for most of their upper-minors names, though.

2019 first-rounder Kody Hoese struggled again, never finding his footing with Double-A Tulsa and still searching for his power stroke. DJ Peters, once thought of as a top-20 prospect and potential fourth outfielder, somehow lost his roster spot and wound up on the Texas Rangers in the blink of an eye, where all former Dodgers go to … OK, fine, “die” is a little harsh, but …

Of course, the list of high-level disappointments might be topped by these three players, who still haven’t been able to survive the chasm between Triple-A pitching and big-league arms. We wouldn’t give up on them yet, but there are definitely some teams hoping the Dodgers do.

These 3 Dodgers could be “buy low” trade steals for someone else.

3. Zach McKinstry

After the 2020 season, Zach McKinstry was ranked by MLB Pipeline as a top-20 utility option for a Dodgers team that ended up with outfield openings earlier in the season than they surely planned to.

The versatile speedster made the Opening Day roster and played a good deal of left field in April before being sidelined with a right oblique issue for six weeks, just after getting acclimated.

Ultimately, McKinstry saw his role wane as the season dragged on, but he parlayed his first “full” season into 158 at-bats, a .215 average, seven bombs, a 77 OPS+, and -0.8 WAR, a stunning amount subtracted for such a small sample size.

McKinstry would’ve had a clearer path to playing in 2022 if he’d succeeded, of course, but also if Los Angeles had opted not to re-sign Chris Taylor — who is, of course, back on a four-year, $60 million. With pop, speed and versatility, there’s still a decent chance McKinstry turns into a sort of “Taylor Lite” from the left side of the plate, as he split reps during his debut season at right field, left field, second base and third base almost equally.

Theoretically, he also plays shortstop, but we haven’t seen it at the big-league level yet.

McKinstry’s one season shouldn’t be held against him, and his developing raw power, lateral quickness and arm strength at multiple positions would be valued by any MLB team for their 26th man role — if not more once he gets a real shot without his oblique taking him down a peg. The Dodgers should take great care not to inexplicably lose him like they did Peters ahead of schedule.

Luke Raley #37 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Luke Raley #37 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

2. Luke Raley

While Luke Raley has never been a Dodgers “top prospect” and has theoretically aged out of projections, every Quad-A slugger who wears the uniform is a candidate for a Max Muncy-like breakout.

Unfortunately, his first extended MLB look didn’t go according to plan in 2021 — but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers should hack him off the roster and allow some other MLB team to cultivate his breakout.

Raley, now 27, floated back from the Twins to the Dodgers’ system between the 2019 season and minor-league baseball’s 2021 reopening, traded in the “three-way” Mookie Betts deal. That reunited him with his initial organization; he was a Dodgers draftee to begin with, but was traded to Minnesota in 2018 for Brian Dozier.

Raley’s best minor-league campaign came in 2021, when he triple-slashed a remarkable .294/.393/.570 (yes, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) and bashed 19 homers in just 72 games, knocking in 69 runs. Unfortunately, his cameo with the big-league club belied his ability; he bashed a pair of bombs in 66 at-bats, but hit just .182 and subtracted 0.5 WAR from the Dodgers’ overall ledger (again, a stunning amount to lose in just 66 ABs).

Should LA enter 2022 considering Raley as a key part of their bench? No. He’s not going to be the first line of defense.

But he won’t be nearly as valuable to any other club, who will be looking at a 27-year-old outfielder without a big-league imprint to his name as an ancillary piece in any deal.

The Dodgers might have a special slugger in the upper levels of their system. They shouldn’t let anyone poach him after he put his worst foot forward in 2021.

Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jonathan Moore/Getty Images)
Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jonathan Moore/Getty Images) /

1. Gavin Lux

The Dodgers are currently in a Gavin Lux-created pretzel. They should not trade Lux for anything less than his true value as a former top-five overall prospect in the game of baseball. However, every time they give him significant playing time, his shine gets a little bit further depleted, and continues to get squeezed out of a starting role.

Lux, freshly 24, finally has the clearest path to playing time he’s ever had in 2022; it’s difficult to find time for a top prospect to worm his way onto an All-Star team, after all. Without Corey Seager, though, there’s a good chance Lux can be the Dodgers’ starting second baseman — with Trea Turner at short and Chris Taylor in the outfield — for a good portion of LA’s games, especially if the Universal DH is introduced and Cody Bellinger/Max Muncy can swap back and forth.

Last year, Lux piled up 1.6 WAR in 335 at-bats, flashing elite athleticism but still presenting unfulfilled promise more often than not. He hit .242 with seven bombs, but posted just an 87 OPS+ in his first extended look at the MLB level. “Average” isn’t good enough for someone of Lux’s caliber, and “below-average” is even further disqualifying.

Too often, Lux’s career has been summed up by the fly ball he struck on the barrel in the NLDS against the Giants that nearly tied the game dramatically in the ninth, but instead fell harmlessly about 20 feet short of where it should have theoretically gone.

If the Dodgers trade Lux, they had better be sure they’re getting equivalent value for someone who could easily pile up 400 effective at-bats this season and slide into Turner’s spot next offseason after he bolts for a $300 million deal.

Somebody’s going to try to trade him in exchange for one of their depreciated assets, though, and that shouldn’t be acceptable.

Next