Is this the year Tony Gonsolin comes alive for the Dodgers?

It’s all coming up Los Angeles Dodgers in the early going of the 2022 season. The lineup is humming along and distracting from Mookie Betts’ struggles. The bullpen is as good as ever despite losing a few key pieces. And the starting rotation isn’t nearly as “thin” as many expected it to be.

The latter positive, in large part, is due to both Andrew Heaney and Tony Gonsolin. But now that Heaney’s hit the injured list with a shoulder issue, it’ll be all eyes on Gonsolin for the time being.

Through the right-hander’s first three starts of the year, he’s 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA, 3.46 FIP and 1.23 WHIP. And for all of you looking at the advanced metrics suggesting he hasn’t been that good (you’d be partially correct), he’s yet to give up a home run and has limited hard contact. Pretty darn good.

That’s now got fans wondering if he can be the secret weapon in the back end of the rotation many have envisioned for a few years now. Gonsolin captured the 2020 Baseball America Rookie of the Year award for his impressive efforts (2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.29 FIP and 46 strikeouts in nine games totaling 46.2 innings), which kickstarted this whole thing.

However, he had a very forgettable postseason that year and then followed it up with a 2021 campaign that was interrupted by injuries. The results were solid but not great, and the holes in his game were obvious. That 4.54 FIP in 15 games was certainly more indicative than his 3.23 ERA.

But now? A 0.69 ERA to cap off 4/20. ‘Atta boy.

Can Tony Gonsolin make the Dodgers’ rotation the best in MLB?

There are a few red flags, however. He’s only tossed 13 innings and struck out eight batters. His FIP (3.46) is nearly three points higher than his ERA. He’s walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Worth noting and keeping an eye on, that’s all.

BUT! He’s in the 94th percentile among starting pitchers for hard hit percentage, the 74th percentile for barrel percentage, 73rd percentile for expected slugging percentage, 72nd percentile for average exit velocity, and 69th percentile for chase rate.

The 27-year-old’s early-career success really is no joke, regardless of how you look at the numbers. His game has holes, yes, but the results are the results through 38 games.

What’s different this year? It’s obviously a smaller sample size, but Gonsolin has thrown his fastball a lot less (33.8%, a career low by far) and increased his slider and split finger usage. Could this pitch mix help his stamina in 2022? His career-high in innings pitched came last year at 55.2, and there’s no way fans can get a true gauge on his capabilities as a starter until he at least hits 100 IP.

That type of workload, though abbreviated, would go a long way toward maintaining a top rotation as well as preserving the bullpen. So … let the Cat Man run free!

Dodgers rotation already takes hit with latest roster move

The Los Angeles Dodgers have promoted Zach McKinstry to the MLB roster after Andrew Heaney hit the injured list with a shoulder issue.