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3 starting pitchers Dodgers might have to trade for before deadline frenzy

By Thomas Carannante |
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JUNE 25: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals at loanDepot park on June 25, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JUNE 25: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals at loanDepot park on June 25, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the deepest rosters in MLB, but injuries have already taken a toll on their starting rotation, with both Andrew Heaney and Clayton Kershaw going down within the first month of action. Heaney’s been out for nearly a month and just threw his first bullpen on Tuesday, while Kershaw experienced a setback and won’t throw just yet.

If the Dodgers learned anything from 2021, it’s that you can’t go into the playoffs with a thin or tired rotation. Both of those things happened and they were swiftly ousted by the eventual World Series champion Atlanta Braves.

Though Trevor Bauer’s appeal of MLB’s 324-game suspension might throw a wrench in the Dodgers’ plans, it looks like they might not have a choice but to acquire more starting pitching.

Could Ryan Pepiot be a solution? Absolutely. But there’s no telling what he might look like in September and October. The Dodgers need another surefire, proven arm alongside Kershaw (if he’s available), Walker Buehler and Julio Urías come playoff time.

With all due respect, Heaney, Tony Gonsolin (though he’s performing well!) and Tyler Anderson can’t be part of a contingency plan for a top-four in a playoff rotation. They need to be depth options at best if we’re talking about a definitive World Series run.

There’s another problem, though. The Dodgers can’t get caught up in the frenzy right up against the trade deadline. They need to strike early before other bidders get involved, and convince whatever team they’re dealing with that they have the best offer. Otherwise, it’s going to be a contentious bidding war, and LA doesn’t want to be in a position where they’re stuck overpaying with prospect capital.

That’s why it’s important to make calls as early as possible, since Andrew Friedman can already see the writing on the wall with what might happen to his current group of starters.

The Dodgers should target these three starters long before the trade deadline

Martin Perez #54 of the Texas Rangers (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Martin Perez #54 of the Texas Rangers (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) /

3. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers

Can’t hurt to acquire another lefty due to the uncertainty surrounding Heaney and Kershaw. And with the Texas Rangers clearly still very far away from contention, they have a very good trade chip in left-hander Martin Perez, who owns a 2.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 33 strikeouts in his first seven starts (40.1 innings).

Those numbers align with his Statcast metrics, too: he’s in the upper percentiles for xwOBA (87th), barrel percentage (89th), expected slugging (89th), xERA (87th) and xBA (76th). 

On just a one-year, $4 million contract, Perez won’t come cheap, but the Rangers have done fair business in recent years. The deal they made with the Yankees for Joey Gallo was nuanced and clearly catered to New York’s preferences, and it very well might work out for both sides.

Another reason you call early here? Because the Dodgers can maybe convince Texas that this will be the highest they’ll be able to sell Perez, who has a career 4.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Can he maintain his current numbers through the All-Star break? That’s a big risk for Texas to take. Perhaps the Dodgers can convince them to meet in the middle.

Starting pitcher Brad Keller #56 of the Kansas City Royals (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Starting pitcher Brad Keller #56 of the Kansas City Royals (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

2. Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals

Here’s an option for the Dodgers if they want to look at likely cheaper, not as impactful options if they trust their big trio can be healthy for the stretch run.

Brad Keller might be 1-3 on the season, but he’s averaging over six innings per start (43.2 inning across seven outings) and owns a 2.89 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He’s only struck out 25 batters, but he’s in the 81st percentile for walk percentage and limiting baserunners at the best clip of his career.

Are the Royals on to something or is this just luck? Not sure! But with the help of the Dodgers coaching staff, which routinely turns struggling arms into capable contributors, it’s possible Keller. could further elevate his stuff and be an asset in 2023, too.

His fastball, slider and changeup mix has kept hitters off balance, and it could be due to an uptick in his slider/changeup usage (3% and 1.7% up from 2021 so far). The Dodgers love utilizing their pitchers’ secondary offerings, which might make Keller a desirable target.

Plus, if he can eat innings, that’ll take pressure off the bullpen, which will keep the entirety of the pitching staff ready for action when the games really matter.

As for the cost in a trade? We’re not sure, but he’d definitely be the cheapest out of everyone on this list and the Royals might pounce at the opportunity to get their hands on any Dodgers prospect, since their rebuild hasn’t exactly gone according to plan this far.

Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

1. Pablo Lopez

OK. Fine. The Marlins might hold on to Lopez for all of 2022 or, at the very least, wait until the buzzer at the trade deadline to suck every last bit of value out of him.

But like we mentioned with Perez … can Lopez sustain this for two and a half more months? The righty currently leads MLB with a 1.05 ERA and also sports a 0.81 WHIP and 2.3 WAR through his first seven games (43 innings). His Baseball Savant page? All DARK RED … with the exception of fastball velocity and fastball spin.

Lopez’s five-pitch offering (fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup and curveball) would almost be unfair on the Dodgers’ staff, and acquiring him would be a hefty price to pay, since he’s controllable through the 2024 season. Why not cut the line now and pay the premium (but less of a premium than you likely would up against the deadline)?

The Marlins have long had one or more starting pitchers mired in trade rumors the last few years, but the recent contract extension for Sandy Alcantara (five years, $56 million) might’ve ruled him out as a potential trade candidate. Lopez, who will have drastically rising arbitration costs these next couple seasons if his production continues ($2.5 million salary in 2022 will likely be over $10-12 million by 2024), might be the leading candidate to help the Marlins acquire more talent, since they already have a rotation that boasts Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo (with prospects Sixto Sanchez, Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera potentially not far off, if all goes as planned). The Marlins have a surplus of pitching at all levels and could stand to improve almost every offensive area of the roster with the exception of second base (which is occupied by Jazz Chisholm Jr.).

It’s unclear what Lopez might cost, but the Dodgers should try to get ahead and see what the Marlins are at least looking for, because maybe they can satiate their needs earlier (and better!) than anybody else.

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