Julio Urías getting no run support from Dodgers proves ‘wins’ are meaningless stat

Thomas Carannante
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 14: Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts as heads to the dugout after allowing three runs to the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on May 14, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 14: Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts as heads to the dugout after allowing three runs to the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on May 14, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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Somehow, the front end of the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ rotation has felt “underwhelming” so far this season despite the fact Walker Buehler and Julio Urías remain among the better starters in the league.

Why is that? Because the two seem to be laboring a bit more in their outings. They’re not striking out as many batters. They’re not going as deep into games. But Buehler has had one big advantage over Urías that’s out of their control: run support.

The Dodgers are averaging 7.01 runs per nine innings in Buehler’s start vs … 2.20 runs per nine innings for Urías. As a result, after leading MLB with 20 wins in 2021, Urías is now just 3-4 on the season despite sporting a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine games.

Also, looking at Urías’ game-by-game breakdown shows the left-hander should definitely have far fewer than four losses and likely more than three victories. He’s had two bad outings this year, and the other SEVEN have featured two earned runs or fewer, but he’s just 3-2 in those contests.

He’s also somehow 0-1 in three games that have featured a total of 17 innings pitched and two earned runs, including the team’s most recent 1-0 loss to the Washington Nationals last week.

With fewer wins on his ledger, Urías certainly isn’t being as viewed as favorably as he was last year, and it’s solely due to a lack of run support. Further argument to ban the win?!

Julio Urías isn’t getting run support from the Los Angeles Dodgers

Well, that’s baseball! In a deeper effort to prove this is all bad luck, most of Urías’ advanced metrics show he’s on the right track. He’s limited hard contact and is among the league leaders in fastball spin and curveball spin. He’s really only lagging behind in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, but that hasn’t resulted in a ton more baserunners, as evidenced by his 1.06 WHIP, 66th percentile rank in xwOBA, and 63rd percentile rank in expected batting average.

He’s following the same blueprint as 2021 (a career year for the left-hander) in regard to his offerings. The only thing that’s changed dramatically is the offense deciding to show up for him every fifth day he’s on the bump.

Urías ranks 16th in ERA, 21st in WHIP and 24th in opponents’ batting average in all of MLB. Those numbers suggest he’s a really good No. 2 and that his record isn’t indicative of what he’s been able to accomplish, despite the results not being the most impressive.

His 20 wins last year were well earned. But this time around he may just be at mercy to some bad luck and untimely offensive output.

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