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Predicting arrival timelines for the top 5 Dodgers prospects

By Jason Reed

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 23: Miguel Vargas #71 of the Los Angeles Dodgers follows through on a swing against the Cleveland Guardians during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch on March 23, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 23: Miguel Vargas #71 of the Los Angeles Dodgers follows through on a swing against the Cleveland Guardians during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch on March 23, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have been able to master the balance between having a big-market payroll and a small-market farm system. Despite constantly having one of the most expensive teams in the sport and continually dipping into the farm to make trades, the Boys in Blue have boasted one of the game’s most consistent systems.

That continues to be the case in 2022 even after the massive Max Scherzer-Trea Turner deal from last season, as the Dodgers have six prospects in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. One of those six has already made his MLB debut (Ryan Pepiot) and three (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas) will play in the 2022 Futures Game at Dodger Stadium.

This will provide just a taste of what it is like to play at Dodger Stadium for these top prospects. But when will they actually get their big-league chance?

Predicting the timelines for the top 5 Dodgers prospects:

Rancho Cucamonga Diego Cartaya stretches before their game against Visalia Rawhide on Friday, April 8 on Opening Night at Valley Strong Stadium.
Rancho Cucamonga Diego Cartaya stretches before their game against Visalia Rawhide on Friday, April 8 on Opening Night at Valley Strong Stadium. /

Diego Cartaya: Mid-to-late 2024

Diego Cartaya is the No. 1 prospect in the Dodgers organization and is 14th in all of baseball. Cartaya’s rise from promising international signing to top MLB prospect was meteoric, and with the numbers he is posting in the minors, it wouldn’t be surprising if he cracks the top five before he makes his debut.

In 56 MiLB games this season, Cartaya has hit 14 homers, driven in 48 RBI and is slashing .283/.421/.566. The 20-year-old catcher is the real deal, but it is going to be some time until Cartaya makes the big-league roster.

Cartaya is only with the Single-A+ Great Lakes roster right now, as he is only in his second season in the farm system. Add in the fact that Austin Barnes signed a two-year extension with the club, and it is safe to say that we are still a few years away from Cartaya gracing Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers have a club option for Barnes in 2025 and, at that point, he will be 35 years old. That opens the door for Cartaya to likely take over the starting catching duties, with Will Smith spending more time as the designated hitter.

Cartaya will either get the call as a September call-up to accrue big-league experience, or he will get the call before that in the case of an injury. Regardless, based on how Dodgers prospects typically develop, he will likely end this season (and begin next season) in Double-A. Then, he will end the 2023 season (and begin 2024) in Triple-A.

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