Predicting arrival timelines for the top 5 Dodgers prospects

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been able to master the balance between having a big-market payroll and a small-market farm system. Despite constantly having one of the most expensive teams in the sport and continually dipping into the farm to make trades, the Boys in Blue have boasted one of the game’s most consistent systems.

That continues to be the case in 2022 even after the massive Max Scherzer-Trea Turner deal from last season, as the Dodgers have six prospects in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. One of those six has already made his MLB debut (Ryan Pepiot) and three (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas) will play in the 2022 Futures Game at Dodger Stadium.

This will provide just a taste of what it is like to play at Dodger Stadium for these top prospects. But when will they actually get their big-league chance?

Predicting the timelines for the top 5 Dodgers prospects:

Diego Cartaya: Mid-to-late 2024

Diego Cartaya is the No. 1 prospect in the Dodgers organization and is 14th in all of baseball. Cartaya’s rise from promising international signing to top MLB prospect was meteoric, and with the numbers he is posting in the minors, it wouldn’t be surprising if he cracks the top five before he makes his debut.

In 56 MiLB games this season, Cartaya has hit 14 homers, driven in 48 RBI and is slashing .283/.421/.566. The 20-year-old catcher is the real deal, but it is going to be some time until Cartaya makes the big-league roster.

Cartaya is only with the Single-A+ Great Lakes roster right now, as he is only in his second season in the farm system. Add in the fact that Austin Barnes signed a two-year extension with the club, and it is safe to say that we are still a few years away from Cartaya gracing Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers have a club option for Barnes in 2025 and, at that point, he will be 35 years old. That opens the door for Cartaya to likely take over the starting catching duties, with Will Smith spending more time as the designated hitter.

Cartaya will either get the call as a September call-up to accrue big-league experience, or he will get the call before that in the case of an injury. Regardless, based on how Dodgers prospects typically develop, he will likely end this season (and begin next season) in Double-A. Then, he will end the 2023 season (and begin 2024) in Triple-A.

Michael Busch: 2023 Opening Day roster

If MLB still had the old rules with September call-ups, then Michael Busch would absolutely make his MLB debut with the team this season. However, with rosters only expanding two spots and another player on this list being a guarantee, Busch will likely have to wait until 2023 to get his chance.

Granted, there is always the possibility of the Dodgers getting beaten up with so many injuries that they are forced to go to Busch. The fact that the team has called up Jake Lamb over Busch should be all we need to know in that department, though.

If Busch was right-handed, his path to the big-league roster would be a lot easier, as the team is lacking in right-handed bats, especially if Trea Turner does not re-sign with the Dodgers this offseason. Busch would have been such a logical replacement for Hanser Alberto.

That being said, Busch has shown a lot of progress this season against left-handed pitching, which makes him easier to call up on the Opening Day roster in 2023. While he struggled in previous years, Busch has actually been a reverse splits guy this season. He has a .288 average and .977 OPS against southpaws and a .257 average and .884 OPS against righties.

Busch was tearing it up at the Double-A level and was quickly promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City. In 42 games there, Busch has hit 10 home runs, driven in 31 RBI and has a .240/.298/.474 triple-slash. Still some work that needs to be done there.

Andy Pages: Late 2023

In terms of the logistics, there is a good case to be made for Andy Pages to make the big-league roster next season. The Dodgers are really thin in the outfield and Pages would give the team a fourth outfielder with power.

However, Pages is still only 21 years old and he is not even on the 40-man roster yet. While he is posting pretty promising numbers in the minors, he is still only in Double-A, and the Dodgers are going to want to develop his bat more.

It serves Pages much better if he actually can start everyday and get at-bats in OKC rather than coming up to the big-league club and being the fourth outfielder. The Dodgers are more likely to fill that outfield depth need with a free agent in the winter, with Pages likely making his MLB debut in late 2023 to get some reps with the big-league club.

Pages won’t be a full-time member of the roster until the start of the 2024 season.

That is, as long as the Dodgers do not trade him. The Dodgers do not have a lot of outfield depth in the system, especially considering first-round Jeren Kendall has been a flop, so they probably won’t trade him. However, the team already did try to trade him and would have alongside Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling if Arte Moreno had not grown impatient.

Miguel Vargas: Before the 2022 season ends

Miguel Vargas is the fifth-ranked prospect in the Dodgers system, but he is the most likely to get playing time this season. Vargas has been tearing it up at the Triple-A level and he checks so many boxes for the Dodgers.

Vargas is going to continue getting his at-bats down in Triple-A, and he will likely get called up in August or September when the roster expands to help the big-league club. Once there, Vargas is a candidate to make the postseason roster as a depth player in a similar fashion to Gavin Lux in 2019.

Vargas gives the team a nice right-handed bat and, at the very least, would be a significantly better option than Hanser Alberto. The infield prospect also gives the team another option if Max Muncy and Justin Turner continue to play horribly (although Turner is turning around). Heck, the Dodgers are even playing Vargas in the outfield in Triple-A to see if he can help there.

It is not a matter of if Vargas gets called up this season, but a matter of when. He is on a 25+ home run and 100+ RBI pace in Triple-A with an OPS of .878. He has proven that he can swing it, and the big club could really use his bat.

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And who knows, maybe Vargas could end up being a postseason hero as a depth option. Gavin Lux hit a home run in his first-ever postseason at-bat, after all.