Projecting the Dodgers’ playoff rotation without Walker Buehler

While ye of little faith probably thought Walker Buehler was unlikely to return for October even before he opted to go under the knife, the news became official on Monday afternoon, when the Dodgers announced elbow surgery for their ace. Also … shoutout to ye of little faith! Y’all were correct, actually.

Buehler, done after only 12 starts this season and holding onto a surprising 4.02 ERA with 67 hits allowed in 65 innings, never totally looked like himself this year, which resulted in surgery to remove bone chips back in June.

The damage done had nearly ticketed Buehler for the bullpen upon return, if he made it back at all. Now that he’s officially been ruled out, the Dodgers’ 2022 postseason rotation might … not actually change all that much.

At the very least, though, it shuffles potential piggyback ‘pen roles, and makes Los Angeles shallower. If the Mets and their Max Scherzer/Jacob deGrom combination are on the docket, that could get dicey.

By the time October rolls around, the Dodgers certainly hope they’ll have Clayton Kershaw back from his balky back. Can anyone 100% count on on a complete recovery? Of course not; similar issues have plagued him for years.

For the purposes of a projection, though, Kershaw remains a piece of the postseason puzzle. Without Buehler, expect a few four-inning starts, some starters-as-relievers, and a lot of mixing and matching.

Dodgers playoff rotation after Walker Buehler injury

Game 1: Julio Urías

Game 2: Clayton Kershaw (with Andrew Heaney waiting)

Game 3: Tony Gonsolin (with Dustin May waiting)

Game 4: Tyler Anderson (with, hopefully, either Heaney or May available)

There’s a ton of arm talent there. There are also several semi-redundant pitchers who rely on guile over stuff, which has mercifully worked over the course of a long season, but might not function so fantastically against a gauntlet of the league’s best offenses.

Buehler would’ve been massive. Hopefully, the arrival of May — coming soon! — will have the same effect. After Gonsolin/Anderson rock their opponents to sleep, it would be luxurious to be able to insert May’s hard 98 and sweeping breakers for three innings at a time.

Right now, Urías gets the No. 1 spot only because the amount of length Kershaw can give this club is entirely unpredictable. This dichotomy could shift in the next month and a half, but it seems likely Kershaw will need more time to ramp up, and will also happily head nod in Urías’ direction in the name of winning a ring. That’s the kind of legend he is.

The 2022 Dodgers have the luxury of time. They’ve raced ahead to the best record in baseball, and have the same division lead over the second-place Padres that most division leaders currently hold over the team in the basement.

Losing Buehler didn’t make them stronger, but it also wasn’t a shot to the gut from out of nowhere. Andrew Friedman and Co. have likely been preparing for this eventuality for some time, even though their deadline moves didn’t make the plan obvious.

Even without Buehler in full force, though, there’s still a safety net available.

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