Is Cody Bellinger’s defense worth disastrous offensive trade-off for Dodgers?

Cody Bellinger did not start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS with Blake Snell on the mound for the San Diego Padres. It was an obvious no-brainer for manager Dave Roberts, but this shouldn’t be the reality of the situation for Bellinger at this point in his MLB career.

He’s supposed to be an everyday starter. He’s supposed to strike fear into any pitcher that takes the mound, regardless of which arm they throw with. He’s supposed to be featured in the middle of the Dodgers lineup.

Instead, Belli’s overall been a liability since the 2020 season. His 2019 MVP campaign feels like a decade ago. That year, he hit .305 with a 1.035 OPS, 176 OPS+, 47 home runs, 115 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 156 games.

Since then? .203 average, .648 OPS, 41 home runs, 142 RBI and 23 stolen bases in 295. He struck out just 108 times during his 2019 MVP season. He’s struck out 150 times this year alone in 144 games.

Bellinger’s saving grace at this point has been his elite defense in center field. He covers a ton of ground and makes tremendous reads at the crack of the bat. But is that worth the disastrous offensive trade-off the Dodgers are currently dealing with? Is it going to be worth them paying ~$20 million for him in 2023?

Is Cody Bellinger’s defense worth his awful offense for the Dodgers at this point?

So far this postseason, Bellinger is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Small sample size, yes. And the fact he was one of the team’s most valuable hitters last October cannot be ignored.

The problem is that he was unable to build off of last year’s success in the playoffs. He had a full year to get back on track. He wasn’t hindered by injuries in 2022 like he was in 2020 and 2021. His splits for each month this year are varying degrees of “bad.” You might look at his extra-base hit total and think “hey, not so bad,” but … he’s hitting just .238 with RISP, .230 with two outs and RISP, and .222 in high-leverage situations.

Even worse … he can’t hit right-handed starters! He’s slashing .200/.262/.380 in those matchups this year. He’s better against lefty starters! So what’s the point?

Also … how “elite” is his defense? He’s been worth a 0.7 dWAR over the past three seasons (and 1.2 WAR overall over that span). Are you a Defensive Runs Saved person? Just +4 for Belli over the last three seasons in that category. His 16 Outs Above Average since 2020 (and the fact he ranks in the 90th percentile in that category in 2022) is a metric most fans can get behind … but there are seven center fielders are ahead of him over the last three seasons. Is the eighth-best center fielder worth the headache?

• Trent Grisham – 26 OAA since 2020
• Harrison Bader – 24 OAA
• Myles Straw – 24 OAA
• Cedric Mullins – 23 OAA
• Michael A. Taylor – 21 OAA
• Byron Buxton – 19 OAA
• Kevin Kiermaier – 18 OAA
• Cody Bellinger – 15 OAA
• Enrique Hernandez – 14 OAA
• Luis Robert – 13 OAA
• Jose Siri – 13 OAA
• Jackie Bradley Jr – 12 OAA

Outside of Mullins, Buxton, Hernandez and Robert, all of these players are mediocre to bad offensive performers. But none are close to Bellinger’s price tag.

So, we ask again, is Bellinger’s price and offensive shortcomings worth his so-called “elite” defense?

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