Predicting where each Dodgers free agent will sign this offseason

The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off of an incredibly disappointing 111-win season in which the team could only muster one win in the playoffs. With all of the resources at the team’s disposal, there’s bound to be some kind of change for LA this offseason.

Andrew Friedman and Co. certainly have the means to make changes since there’s a laundry list of free agents coming off the books this season. Of that group, there are only a handful of important free agents the team must bring back.

So which of these free agents will actually return to put on the Dodger blue, and which are going to say goodbye to Chavez Ravine — and where will they be heading? With the offseason officially underway, let’s take a crack at predicting where each Dodgers free agent will sign, in order of importance.

Five Dodgers free agents did not qualify for this list: Trevor Bauer, who has a player option (obvious reasons why he isn’t included); Danny Duffy and Kevin Pillar for not having real roles in 2022; Hanser Alberto and Jimmy Nelson, as their club options were already denied; and David Price, because it’s likely he retires (and also has no real role on this roster).

Predicting the fate of each Dodgers free agent this offseason

Joey Gallo: Signs with Cincinnati Reds

It would be shocking to see Joey Gallo return to the Dodgers as the low-risk flier didn’t really amount to anything in LA. He didn’t even get a postseason at-bat! Gallo’s best fit seems to be a small-market team in a prominent hitter-friendly park that will pay him 20% over market value on a one-year deal.

Expect Gallo to sign with a team like the Cincinnati Reds where he can play every day and try to up his value for the next offseason.

Craig Kimbrel: Signs with Arizona Diamondbacks

Craig Kimbrel was not great in Los Angeles but his stuff still plays on paper. His 2022 numbers were not as outwardly bad as other relievers in the sport. The Dodgers certainly won’t bring him back this offseason, though. He could land with a division rival as a result.

Arizona swung and missed with Mark Melancon, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them try to poach another rival closer at a cheap cost. Kimbrel is still a better option for the ninth inning than fellow former Dodger Reyes Moronta.

Andrew Heaney: Signs with San Francisco Giants

Andrew Heaney was such an interesting pitcher last season. He was the definition of a boom-or-bust arm, as even when he started to regress and allow homers he was still striking out batters at an absurdly high clip.

A lot of teams liked what was under the hood with Heaney last offseason and that will remain the same this year. With other pitchers to prioritize, the Dodgers will allow another smart team to lure Heaney away with an offer.

Farhan Zaidi is another smart baseball mind, and with the Giants in dire need to button up the back end of their rotation, a two-year deal up north seems like a good pact for both parties.

Tommy Kahnle: Re-signs with Dodgers

The worst move Dave Roberts made this October was putting Tommy Kahnle in for a second consecutive day against the exact same Padres batters he faced the day prior. As bad as that decision was, and as unavailable as Kahnle has been, the Dodgers are obviously high on what he can offer when he’s healthy.

This is a classic case of the Dodgers bringing back a reliever they like for very cheap, hoping he can outperform what he’s being paid (and make up for Game 4 of the NLDS).

Justin Turner: Team option is picked up

It might seem like a lot for the Dodgers to pick up Justin Turner’s $16 million team option for the 2023 season, but the team has the space to do so. The Dodgers are entering the winter with $111 million in projected luxury tax space, meaning that they can easily afford Turner.

Turner might not be worth $16 million, but he has done so much for this organization — and just his presence in the locker room is a colossal asset for the Dodgers. Turner and the team may have to get together and work out a smaller role for him because he shouldn’t be an everyday player anymore.

The team re-signed Chase Utley when everyone thought his career was over, and they obviously liked Turner enough to put an option in his deal for 2023. Plus, Turner was really productive in the second half and rallied to finish with a decent season. Not a $16 million season … but this is a multi-billion dollar baseball franchise. Overpaying is the norm.

In a perfect world, the Dodgers and Turner can work out a deal where the team actually rejects the team option, re-signs Turner to a smaller 2023 salary, and then defers the rest of the money he was owed as a “thank you.”