Dodgers-Brewers trade for Willy Adames will cost LA far too much

Typically, the Los Angeles Dodgers “get their way.” In free agency. In trade talks. You name it. Andrew Friedman is the best in the game and there’s no denying that. But they can’t have it all, and they’re not going to outsmart teams with forward-thinking front offices.

The Dodgers can be “interested” in as many players as they wish to be. It doesn’t mean they become Dodgers with the snap of a finger.

So while MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reporting LA recently had their eyes on a trade for Brewers shortstop Willy Adames is a nice little nugget, it doesn’t mean anything. For one, Milwaukee, a cost-conscious team largely unwilling to part with valuable, controllable assets, is unlikely to move one of their most important pieces.

OK, fine. Let’s just say they were willing to. Let’s say the Dodgers were the top suitor. Do you realize how much prospect capital this would cost LA?

Adames, 27, has two more years in the arbitration process and is projected to earn $9.2 million in 2023 (after making $4.6 million in 2022). That number should approach $14 million for 2024, which would essentially be a two-year, $25 million contract for one of the best shortstops in the game over the last two seasons. The Brewers would want an absolute HAUL should they even entertain this trade scenario.

Dodgers-Brewers trade for Willy Adames seems wildly unrealistic

The high-profile shortstop market the last couple seasons is costing teams a ton of money. The deals ranged from Corey Seager’s $325 million contract to Carlos Correa’s one-year, $35.1 million pact.

This time around, the class will feature Correa (again), Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. To safely estimate, none of those players will earn less than $150 million on a long-term deal or $25 million on a shorter-term contract.

If the Brewers know they’re saving the Dodgers that much money and making their payroll situation a lot more comfortable for the foreseeable future, there’s no world in which LA is dictating a second of these negotiations. The Brewers will name their price and Friedman will have to say yes or no.

The Dodgers were forced to surrender their top two prospects for two months of Max Scherzer and 1.5 years of Trea Turner (who cost them $25.5 million over that span). Two full years of Adames would likely require a similar cost in trade talks when you consider all factors (the cost of free agent shortstops, Adames’ rank among his peers, and the loss a small-market team such as Milwaukee would absorb by moving him).

The Dodgers seemingly have big plans for a number of their top prospects, most notably Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone. Unless they’re willing to part with Diego Cartaya and Andy Pages, don’t expect these Adames rumors to hold any weight. No sense in getting excited for something that’s this much of a longshot.

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