2026 PECOTA projections make it obvious NL West has no chance of competing with Dodgers

With spring training officially upon us, 2026 projections — for wins and losses, for postseason odds, for World Series odds — are all the rage. There's no question that the Dodgers are the heavy favorites to win not just the NL West but the World Series, for the third time in a row, but Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA rankings say more about the state of the rest of the division than they do about LA.

They have the Dodgers winning around 104 games, with 98.1% odds to win the division and 23% odds to win the World Series, far and away the best odds of any other team (the Mariners trail in second at 12.4%). No surprises there, but further down the list, the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks project to be locked in a battle of who can be the least mid.

San Diego projects to win 81.7 games, San Francisco 81.4, and Arizona 76.9.

This has seemed pretty obvious to Dodgers fans, purely based on the eye test. None of the Padres, Giants, or Daimondbacks have done much this offseason not only to try to keep pace with the Dodgers, but even to differentiate themselves from one another.

PECOTA projects Dodgers to absolutely run away with the NL West in 2026

PECOTA expects the AL East to be the most difficult division for any of its five teams to win, but there are no surprises there, with a 7.1 game spread between the projected winners (Yankees) and projected losers (Rays). The 22.6 game spread between the Dodgers and Padres is the most drastic of any in these division standings.

Of course, projections are never perfect. PECOTA had the Dodgers winning 104 games last year, too, but they ended up winning 93, and there was even a perilous stretch in August when the Dodgers ceded their lead to the Padres twice, and some real reason to be concerned in September. Injuries, unexpected additions, and any of the other myriad variables means that nothing is ever set in stone.

But when looking at the rest of the NL West's moves this offseason, it wouldn't surprise anyone if things actually shake out this way, with the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks hoping that they'll be just good enough to eke into the Wild Card.

Interdivision matchups should still be thrilling to watch. The Dodgers and Padres have formed one of the most interesting rivalries the game has seen in years, and they tend to play their best baseball against each other. But when the Padres have left LA, or the Dodgers have left San Diego? There's no question as to who the better team is in the grand scheme of things.