3 perfect Dodgers 2026 MLB draft targets ruined by MLB's luxury tax penalty

Every winter, the Los Angeles Dodgers do what the Dodgers do. They identify the best players on the market, they sign them, and they deal with the consequences later. The names pile up, the championships follow, and somewhere in the fine print of every transaction is a cost most fans never think about — the draft pick and the money associated with it.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, teams that exceed the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, set $40 million above the $244 million base threshold, have their highest draft pick moved back ten spots. The Dodgers have blown past that line in each of the past several years, and in 2026 it costs them deeply: their natural pick based on their record sits around No. 30, but the 10-pick penalty pushes them all the way back to No. 40.

That slide is only part of the cost. The deeper damage is in the bonus pool, and this is where the numbers become genuinely jarring. Because each forfeited pick takes its assigned slot value out of a team's total spending pool, the Dodgers enter 2026 with just $3,951,900 to spend across their entire draft class, the smallest pool in all of baseball.

These 3 prospects are now out of Dodgers reach in the 2026 MLB Draft

So here's the exercise. If the Dodgers had their original selection, some of their other draft picks they forfeited and a competitive bonus pool to go with them, who would they realistically be targeting? Three names stand out in that range (and who may slide a bit) — each with elite upside, each with a specific narrative that's compressed their stock just enough to still be there.

RHP Logan Reddemann, UCLA

Logan Reddemann is someone who showed banger stuff earlier this spring — the kind of arm that had evaluators floating top-20 conversations in early April before he webt down with what was described only as "arm fatigue" in late April. That vague description is the story, and likely one of the contributors to his Bruins' team early exit in the NCAA Tournament.

The mystery of what exactly happened to his arm has almost certainly cost him 10 to 15 draft spots. Teams with early picks aren't usually willing to absorb the uncertainty at premium prices. But a team picking at the end of the first round might be exactly the kind of sophisticated organization willing to dig into the medicals, get comfortable with what they see, and bet on an arm that was generating top-10 buzz before the calendar turned against him. The Dodgers, who have produced elite pitchers consistently and have the player development infrastructure to handle a health question, fit that profile precisely.

3B Bo Lowrance, Christ Church Episcopal (Greenville, SC)

Bo Lowrance is the prep bat in this range who has been generating consistent buzz. The sweet lefty stroke, the natural loft, the all-fields approach; there are real reasons for the comparison to Freddie Freeman, even if it's early to lean on it too hard.

The knock is twofold: he's a Virginia commit, which makes him likely an expensive sign, and his 6'5'' frame raises the usual mechanical questions about whether he can adjust to higher level pitching. They're exactly the kind of risk factors that push a potential top half of the first round talent toward the back end of the round, and that's where value gets created in a draft. The Dodgers have shown repeatedly that they're willing to use organizational budget to make the right bonus commitment when the talent demands it.

LHP Brody Bumila, Bishop Feehan HS (Attleboro, MA)

This one requires the most context, because Brody Bumila was a preseason top prospect who has since slid 12 spots in the most recent Baseball America update. The reason for the drop is the thing that makes him so interesting. He had his UCL repaired via the internal brace procedure earlier in his career, which is technically not "full" Tommy John surgery but is still a red flag that teams processing medicals at premium picks often can't get comfortable with. He's also from Massachusetts, which means he's pitched in cold weather with a shorter developmental sample than a Texas, Florida or California arm.

Strip away the concerns and what's left is this: a 6'9"' left-handed teenager who has been regularly hitting 100 mph this spring, with interesting breaking ball shapes delivered from a lower arm slot and the kind of frame that hasn't even begun to fill out yet. Teams drafting in the top-20 range are going to have trouble reconciling the medical history with the price point. A team picking in the 28-35 area, or in the second round is where Bumila makes perfect sense. The Dodgers, who have produced elite pitching from all arm angles and have built one of the game's best analytics and development environments, are exactly the organization to bet on a high-upside lefty with big stuff and an unusual profile.

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