Baseball America update has experts rethinking Roki Sasaki preseason hype

When the Dodgers signed Roki Sasaki, he pretty much instantly became every prospect outlet's unanimous pick as the No. 1 prospect in baseball. It was kind of a weird technicality, since Sasaki was always going to end up making the major league rotation, but he signed an international free agent minor league contract, which qualified him as a prospect. He technically entered spring training as a non-roster invite, and technically broke camp to make the majors.

Sasaki was the player of the offseason, even if ultimately signing with the Dodgers seemed preordained. The hype even exceeded what surrounded his now-teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 2023; Sasaki's amateur free agent status meant that basically every team could plausibly afford him. He didn't have quite as many accolades as Yamamoto when he left NPB, but his raw talent and age made him the perfect pitcher to mold into an MLB star.

However, his first seven starts in the majors have been rather underwhelming (if not outright worrisome). His command wasn't there in his debut, and it seems that he's still struggling with velocity, an issue he dealt with in his last year in Japan. He has a 3.86 ERA over 30 1/3 innings, and is averaging just 4 1/3 innings a start.

Baseball America, who initially ranked Sasaki in their top spot, quietly made a change on Wednesday. Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony was moved to No. 1, and Sasaki was dropped to No. 2 (subscription required).

Baseball America switches Roki Sasaki and Roman Anthony in new prospect ranking

Anthony was always going to be baseball's No. 1 position player prospect as part of the Red Sox's Big Three (Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell), but he's been just as good in Triple-A as expected. He's batting .301 with a .913 OPS through 31 games, and Boston fans are all but foaming at the mouth to see him get his shot at the majors.

Sasaki being unceremoniously dropped down to No. 2 mirrors the opinion of an anonymous MLB executive, who named Sasaki as the biggest disappointment of the season so far for an MLB.com article last week.

It's true that Sasaki hasn't been as dominant as expected this year. He has yet to pitch a scoreless outing and the command still isn't quite there. The Dodgers have said repeatedly that they view Sasaki as an "unfinished product" they intend to develop, and he is still only 23 getting used to a new level of difficulty in MLB. There's no reason to believe he won't get better, but popular opinion does seem to be shifting into the "overhyped" range.