Blake Snell Injury History: Every ailment that made Dodgers' offseason signing risky

There are few situations in which signing a two-time Cy Young Award winner is a bad move. Last fall, Blake Snell joined 21 other pitchers who've won the Cy multiple times, and so far, that two-time winner status has been a great predictor of future success. Each member of the club, except Denny McLain, made at least one All-Star Game after his second win, and all but five logged at least one more season that surpassed 5.0 fWAR. Signing Snell, then, is a no-brainer, right?

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, Snell is a unique case among this vaunted group. If you take his two award-winning seasons out of the mix, the lefty averages just 2.24 fWAR per season. That’s a Chris Bassitt or a Mitch Keller or a Nick Lodolo. Not a bad player, but not the ace of a World Series favorite. At the end of the day, the difference between these versions of Blake Snell comes down to health.

Blake Snell Injury History: Fragile health has complicated Dodgers star's legacy as a top-flight starter.

In just his second full season in the Majors, Snell broke out in 2018. His 1.89 ERA landed him a Top 10 finish in the MVP race, and he earned his first Cy Young. This season, though, would also see his first trip to the IL when the Rays had to put him on ice for a bit due to shoulder fatigue just after the All-Star break.

Snell began the 2019 season by breaking his toe in a strange bathroom decor incident, and he spent much of the second half of the year on the IL after having arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Luckily, the surgery seemed to have addressed the concerns, as Snell has not had elbow trouble since.

Blake Snell chronic injury develops, 2021

In 2021, Snell developed a left adductor strain in late June. This would be his most persistent and chronic injury, accounting for five trips to the IL over the past four seasons. The initial injury caused the Padres to shut him down in mid-September; he did not pitch again until a rehab stint in late April 2022. On top of the groin strain, Snell also battled gastroenteritis during the 2021 season.

Of more concern to the Dodgers, given Snell’s recent injury, is his lack of effectiveness in his various returns from the IL. In the seventh times he has made immediately following an injury, he has pitched just 25 ⅓ innings ... which is understandable, since his team is likely easing him back into game action. The results of these innings, though, were not Snell-like. He has a 4.62 ERA and 9.24 K/9 in such games, two fewer than his career mark.

That moment of return just got further delayed on Wednesday, as Dave Roberts reported that the lefty "didn't feel great" after playing catch.

Snell’s injury itself is unsettling for the Dodgers and fans, but how he comes back will be the bigger test. If his previous performance has any predictive factor, the Dodgers may be regretting their big offseason signing for quite some time.