Clayton Kershaw's presence at Dodgers spring training has contract rumors swirling

The Los Angeles Dodgers, the clear winners of this offseason, had one more item left on their checklist after re-signing Kiké Hernández: re-signing Clayton Kershaw.

This isn't to say that the Dodgers can't or won't make more, supplementary additions (even if it feels unlikely at this point), but the last remaining priority was getting Kershaw back on the roster at some point this season. The '"when" was the big question.

Kershaw underwent two surgeries this offseason in his knee and toe, which will probably keep him off a mound until the mid-to-late summer, just like last year. In November, he declined his player option for a second year worth $5 million on the last free agent deal he signed. However, Fabian Ardaya noted his presence at the Dodgers' spring training facilities and Alden González followed to report that a new deal had been reached but was pending a physical.

This re-arrival was inevitable, and now, the only question remaining is how much money he'll make. Last year, Kershaw only pitched 30 innings after coming back in late July. He made just seven starts for a 4.50 ERA before going back onto the IL with a toe issue, and he didn't pitch at all in the postseason.

What will Clayton Kershaw's next deal with the Dodgers look like taking his well-documented struggles into account?

Kershaw has re-signed with the Dodgers on one-to-two-year deals three times since the 2021-22 offseason. He came back for one year and $17 million in 2022, then one year and $20 million in 2023. He agreed to another one-year deal with a guaranteed $5 million for 2024, with escalators and a player option worth another $5 million for 2025. He ended up making $7.5 million last season.

The $3 million pay hike from 2022 to 2023 was warranted, given his 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings during the former season, but the dramatic drop from $20 million in 2023 to $5 million (up to $12.5 million with the incentives) in 2024 took into account the shoulder surgery that kept him out of the first four months of the year.

Because history is repeating itself this year, it's unlikely that Kershaw will be guaranteed to make more than the $5 million from last year. It's still hard to imagine the Dodgers paying him any less as a base salary, though, given his history with and importance to the team, but given his inability to stay healthy last year and his age, they might go lower.

A straight-up one-year deal feels pretty inevitable, maybe worth $4 million with more lucrative escalators/incentives built in for a maximum value of around $15 million.

It's likely we'll hear more about contract details after the Dodgers can shift players to the 60-day IL and as Kershaw continues to progress through his throwing program, but at least we weren't dealing with the same stress as last year, when the Rangers looked like they had a real chance of stealing him. The guy said he'll be a Dodger for life, and he's sticking to his word.