Dodgers have one major advantage the Mets can't offer Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal will get a head start in free agency after the Los Angeles Dodgers were unable to find a way to overcome the Milwaukee Brewers during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series on Thursday night. The loss ended the Dodgers' aspirations of a three-peat, and effectively started Skubal's free agency clock.

The Dodgers traded for Skubal at this year's deadline, shipping top outfield prospect Zyhir Hope and pitcher River Ryan to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for the two-time Cy Young award-winner. Though most observers expect LA to be heavily involved in his free agency during the offseason, they won't be the club vying for his services.

SNY MLB insider Chelsea Janes is reporting that the New York Mets are expected to match whatever offer Skubal receives this winter. This is hardly surprising, as most intel has linked the Dodgers and Mets as the two most likely teams to sign the left-hander this offseason. A dark horse or two is sure to emerge, but for all intents and purposes, the pursuit of Skubal will end with one of these two teams.

Both Los Angeles and New York have deep pockets, and Skubal will undoubtedly be seeking to sign the largest deal for a starting pitcher in the history of Major League Baseball. Look for the eventual deal to be worth upwards of $400 million, surpassing the 12-year, $325 million deal Yoshinodu Yamamoto signed in 2024.

But the Dodgers can offer something the Mets can't — a consistent opportunity to win a World Series championship.

While LA's hopes of a three-peat were dashed by Milwaukee, Dodgers fans know that Andrew Friedman will be quick to restock the roster with hopes of returning to the Fall Classic in 2027.

The Dodgers are better positioned than the Mets for long-term success

Regardless of how the upcoming Collective Bargaining negotiations turn out, it's difficult to see any type of resolution between the owners and the Players Association that drastically affects LA's chances to compete for a world title for the foreseeable future. The Dodgers still have the best player in baseball (Shohei Ohtani) under contract, and rotation (Yamamoto, Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow) is already top-notch, even without Skubal.

The Mets, on the other hand, haven't won a World Series since 1986. Even last season, with All-Stars like Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso, New York was beaten out by a Cincinnati Reds team that won just 83 games to qualify for the playoffs. The Mets came into this season with high expectations, but ended the year in the NL East basement.

It's highly unlikely that Skubal will find that type atomsphere enticing, espeically if there are similar offers on the table from the Dodgers or another high-dollar suitor.

Despite Steve Cohen's excessive spending, few organizations in Major League Baseball are less appealing than the Mets. New York has endured six losing seasons over the last 10 years. While some stars don't mind playing second fiddle to the New York Yankees and getting bounced from the postseason during the second week of September, Skubal seems to enjoy LA's winning culture.

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