Dodgers injury fears could rear their ugly head in Roki Sasaki race vs. Padres

In 2024, the Dodgers spent a collective 2,158 days on the IL, and the vast majority of that time was spent by pitchers. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May never even made their season debuts, Clayton Kershaw didn't pitch until late July, Tyler Glasnow went up and down starting in July, Yoshinobu Yamamoto missed two months, Walker Buehler didn't start until May and then missed two more months before the year was over, River Ryan made just four starts before forearm tightness led to Tommy John...

And that was just the starters.

Pitching injuries cropped up all over the league, but it was particularly bad for the Dodgers, who acknowledged their need to revisit their pitching development and coaching before the 2025 season started. It's led them to perhaps overcompensate with starting pitchers this offseason, and they may have seven available starting pitchers at some point next year.

If the Dodgers get their way, they could make it eight. Roki Sasaki will make a decision and sign sometime between Jan. 15 and Jan. 23, and the Dodgers are one of just a few teams who have gotten an in-person meeting with him.

However, those 2024 injuries certainly cast a pall over their chase for him, particularly if his decision really ends up boiling down to the Dodgers or the Padres (and the relative strengths of their pitching development programs). Sasaki wants to be great. Is he willing to sacrifice time on the shelf in the name of doing so?

Dodgers' rash of pitching injuries in 2024 could hurt their case for Roki Sasaki

MLB conducted its own investigation into the injuries to pitchers, which have become more severe and more widespread over the last decade, and their findings pointed to velocity as the key factor. Pitchers have tried to blame the pitch clock or the ban on foreign substances (which may still be having a minor effect), but it's pretty simple science: throwing faster means throwing harder, and throwing harder means more stress on the body.

In NPB, Sasaki's fastball averages 96.8 MPH, about three MPH more than the average major league fastball. There are also differences between the actual baseballs used in MLB and NPB — NPB baseballs are smaller and offer better grip — and Japanese starters typically only pitch once a week. The Dodgers tried to bridge the gap with Yamamoto by attempting to work out a six-man rotation or, more frequently, using openers and bullpen games to give him an extra day off, but he still ended up on the IL for two months.

The Dodgers should be conducting their own internal investigations to get some team-specific answers for their problems, but they won't have a magic fix. LA still has a lot going for it — see: the World Series trophy despite all of those injuries — but it wouldn't be surprising if Sasaki balks a little at them.