Dodgers insider lays out the path forward for a Tarik Skubal return, but he might not bite

Los Angeles Dodgers fans have been through this before. Corey Seager walked to Texas on a 10-year, $325 million deal, Trea Turner took 11 years and $300 million from the Phillies a year later, and Andrew Friedman (looking pretty smart in hindsight) let both of them go rather than commit to the back end of those contracts.

So when the front office pulled off the Tarik Skubal blockbuster in August, the obvious question was whether he would be a rental or a rotation piece for years to come.

The Athletic's Katie Woo offered some clarity on 97.1 FM, and her answer should temper expectations. "I can't see Andrew stomaching a 10-year, $400 million contract if it gets up that high," she said, pointing to "the financial uncertainty from the CBA expiring and whatever is going on with Mark Walter."

Are Dodgers all-in on Tarik Skubal or not?

The speculation is a deal built like the one Kyle Tucker signed in January, a four-year, $240 million contract with a $60 million average annual value, opt-outs after 2027 and 2028, a $64 million signing bonus and $30 million deferred.

Woo described it as a shorter-term deal with opt-outs and a super high AAV, one that keeps Los Angeles focused on "making sure that this competitive window is extended" rather than paying a pitcher into his late 30s.

That's where Skubal might not bite. Scott Boras represents him, and he didn't spend the last two Cy Young seasons building leverage to settle for less than the biggest number on the board. Dodgers fans already know how that goes, since Seager was a Boras client too when he took the Rangers' money.

Woo also mentioned Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million deal is the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher, and Boras naturally will want to beat it. And the Dodgers won't likely carry two of those contracts on the same staff, especially with a new CBA that could bring a salary cap into the conversation.

Still, there's reason for optimism. Tucker isn't a Boras client, but Skubal's good buddy Blake Snell is. Boras knows the Dodgers' inner workings better than almost anyone after negotiating Snell's five-year, $182 million deal, which came with a $52 million signing bonus and $65 million in deferrals.

So, what about a compromise? How about five years and $330 million, a $66 million AAV that tops Tucker's, opt-outs after the second and third seasons and a big chunk deferred to soften the luxury tax hit. In that scenario, Boras gets a headline number that passes Yamamoto's, Skubal gets the chance to hit the market again in his early 30s, and Friedman avoids paying for the decline years he walked away from with Seager and Turner.

Would Skubal take it? Maybe not. But if anyone can find a creative middle ground, it's Boras and a Dodgers front office that's already shown it'll bend the structure to land a star.

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