Japanese superstar Roki Sasaki's MLB free agency might end up being a total crapshoot. At just 23, Sasaki is coming to MLB as an amateur free agent, which will keep him from making anything close to what he would've if he'd waited until he was 25. He'll get league minimum and whatever is in the signing team's international bonus pool, which reset league-wide on Jan. 15.
This technically opens the door for any team to make a play for him. Some teams get more than others in the bonus pool, but if the amount he'll be making is basically negligible next to what he could've been making, and he was willing to take that hit anyway, bonus pool money may not play much of a role.
There are teams that are still being thought of as favorites. The Dodgers, of course, are among them, with two of Sasaki's Team Japan compatriots on the roster in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Beyond LA, there are the other usual suspects who will at least try to woo Sasaki: the Mets, the Yankees, maybe the Phillies.
And then there's the Padres, who also have a Team Japan alum up their sleeves in Yu Darvish, who is said to be a mentor to Sasaki. Bob Nightengale recently reported San Diego was "quietly confident" they would get Sasaki, and Francys Romero doubled down Wednesday, reporting that, "Several industry sources believe the San Diego Padres are in a strong position to land Japanese ace Roki Sasaki."
Insiders believe Padres have a chance to snatch Roki Sasaki from under Dodgers' noses
The Padres have never been ones to fully write off in the Sasaki chase, but the idea is still so distasteful it's hard to think about for too long. Darvish is an influence on him — many of Darvish's Japanese teammates have been seen wearing Padres gear that he gifted to them during the World Baseball Classic — and the Padres clearly put up a strong showing in the regular season this year.
The Dodgers' rotation is being filled up slowly, with Blake Snell's signing and Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May's possible return, but they would never just not talk to Sasaki, given his skill level and how little money he'd be owed. It was clear this year that LA's starters burn hot and then burn out fast, so it's likely that even after adding Snell they'll look to increase their depth with at least one more signing.
Anyone but the Padres would be fine, thanks. Shohei Ohtani has said publicly that he hasn't been actively trying to recruit Sasaki, but maybe the Dodgers should get him on that.