Dodgers Rumors: LA expected to do battle with Yankees for young Japanese star

Every few years, Japan produces a teenager whose name travels across the Pacific before he ever throws a professional pitch and Shoki Oda is the latest. The 18-year-old right-hander from Yokohama High School, the same program that produced Daisuke Matsuzaka, set a Koshien tournament record with a 97.6 mph fastball this summer, has touched 98 in other outings and backs it up with a slider, curveball, cutter, changeup and a splitter that sits in the high 80s.

In October, Oda announced he would skip Nippon Professional Baseball and pursue his career in the United States. The Yomiuri Giants drafted him in the first round anyway, and new manager Hideki Matsui is leading the push to keep him home. But Oda's mind hasn't changed (reportedly), and the Yankees and Dodgers have emerged as the frontrunners, with meetings with MLB clubs likely to begin this week.

Why the Dodgers have the edge on the Yankees for Shoki Oda

The Dodgers have spent the last few years building a pipeline from Asia that doubles as a recruiting pitch. Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki all chose Los Angeles, and as Dylan Hernández wrote in the New York Post, the franchise has succeeded in "painting Japan blue." Oda looks like the next brushstroke — his favorite player is Yamamoto and the only major league team he follows on Instagram is the Dodgers, according to Hernández.

Oda wouldn't be the first Japanese teenager to bypass NPB, either. Rintaro Sasaki went to Stanford and was drafted by the Marlins this summer, and Shotaro Morii signed with the A's, signaling a trend for Japan's premier talent. Simply put, they want to create their own US legacy and play against the best.

The money favors the Dodgers, too. NPB draft bonuses are capped at roughly $640,000, while the Dodgers had a $7.2 million international bonus pool last year, and one scout estimated Oda could command $3 million to $5 million.

Seemingly, the only curveball is the navigation around the looming lockout and how it will affect International signings. The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, and MLB has already told posted NPB stars like Teruaki Sato that they must sign by then because it isn't amending its posting agreement the way it did in 2021.

But as an amateur, Oda isn’t part of the posting process, and as Hernández reported, he can’t sign until a new CBA is ratified. That makes November the Dodgers' window to win the relationship, because once the lockout hits, nobody knows exactly what the landscape will look like.

Fans should also keep their expectations in check on Shoki's major-league ETA. As electric as Oda's stuff is, high school pitchers take time to develop, and he'll climb the minor league ladder like everyone else.

Even for a prospect this gifted, two to three years is probably the earliest he'd reach Dodger Stadium, which is exactly why the organization's player development reputation matters so much in this pitch. A system that already leans heavily on outfielders would love a high-end arm to build around.

The Dodgers are dealing from a position of power, but the Yankees aren't going away and would love to even the scoreboard somehow. The sooner Los Angeles starts wooing Oda, the better its chances of keeping the tradition alive and adding another Japanese star to its growing legacy.

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