Former MLB GM gives Dodgers shockingly low odds of signing Roki Sasaki

So many different factors go into where a player decides to sign, including the team's current quality, amenities for players, marketing opportunities, and, of course, money. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, money is apparently never going to be a problem, but that is an advantage that they aren't going to be able to leverage with the soon-to-be-posted Roki Sasaki.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred revealed this week that Sasaki is likely to be a member of the 2025 international free agent class. The good news is that means that international bonus pools will be reset across the board, but that also means that there is still going to be a hard cap on how much any team, including the resource-rich Dodgers, will be able to spend to sign him.

Despite losing their overwhelming financial edge, the Dodgers have been the favorites to sign Sasaki in the eyes of observers for a long time.

However, the tide seems to be turning away from LA lately, with former MLB general manager Jim Bowden recently suggesting on Foul Territory that he thinks there is an 85-90% chance a team other than the Dodgers ends up landing Sasaki.

Jim Bowden thinks there is a very high chance the Dodgers will lose out on Roki Sasaki

Wild pivot.

Now, Bowden's track record with predictions and having sources who are actually in the know is a bit hit and miss. However, he is still a former GM and clearly has some sources that are in Sasaki's orbit. Whoever they are have colored his thinking, and have led him to suspect that all of the Dodgers-Sasaki chatter is misplaced, and that the righty is more likely to sign with another team. Bowden didn't identify any specific interest from Sasaki's camp elsewhere, although there definitely been a lot of buzz around the Padres' chances lately. He also perceives the Red Sox as a likely option.

85-90% seems a bit bold of a prediction, given that LA does have a lot of built-in advantages and chances for other revenue outside of salary that could and probably should influence Sasaki's decision. One piece of the puzzle we don't have at the moment is how highly the Dodgers think of the other international free agents they were planning on signing, and whether or not they are willing to punt away literally all of them to bring Sasaki in.

It is going to be a couple months before we get answers here with Sasaki, as the earliest he is likely to sign is January 15, 2025. However, those that think the Dodgers are mortal locks to sign Sasaki are ignoring some important context from Sasaki's camp and the nuances of the market.

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