How Dodgers can beat Brewers' offer in the Tarik Skubal trade race

The Dodgers are chasing something no team has pulled off since the 2000 Yankees: a World Series three-peat, and likely will do what it takes to get it. At 67-40, they're tied for the best record in baseball, but the rotation picture is the one variable that could decide whether this October ends the way the last two did or not. Shohei Ohtani hasn't pitched since early July with knee irritation, along with other question marks from Blake Snell, Edwin Diaz and Tyler Glasnow, and an impact arm is exactly the kind of add that lets Andrew Friedman sleep better. Tarik Skubal is that arm.

He's also the arm Milwaukee wants. The Brewers are in the middle of a franchise-record season of their own — fastest to 50 wins in club history, on pace to threaten the 97-win mark they set just last year — and that's changed the calculus on how far they're willing to go by the Aug. 3 deadline. This is an organization that has seen this flick before. In July 2008, Milwaukee sent a package built around Matt LaPorta to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, and all he did was go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA over 17 starts, throw seven complete games, and drag the Brewers to their first postseason in 26 years. With a roster this good, it's not hard to see why ownership and the front office are comfortable pushing chips in again.

So Milwaukee has checked in with Detroit on Skubal, and the price of admission starts with a conversation about Jesús Made, one of the the game's top prospects. Luis Peña, Cooper Pratt, big-league-ready right-hander Logan Henderson, and outfielders Josh Ademczewski and Andrew Fischer have all been floated as pieces the Brewers could realistically move. What they can't easily replace is Made — and that's the fork in the road for their entire offer. If Milwaukee includes him, they're the favorites, full stop. If they don't, the door stays open.

How Dodgers' depth pushes them past Milwaukee Brewers in Tarik Skubal trade chase

That's where the Dodgers' depth becomes the deciding factor. Detroit needs a big-league-ready arm to plug into the rotation immediately, and Los Angeles can offer three in some combination: Justin Wrobleski, River Ryan, or Emmet Sheehan. Wrobleski has already held down a rotation spot this year. Ryan is working back from injury with real stuff to dream on. Sheehan's ERA hasn't been pretty, but the strikeout numbers say the stuff still plays, and he'd give Detroit a controllable arm for years.

Pair one of those arms with a right-handed power bat from the outfield, and that's where this gets interesting. Zyhir Hope has become one of the hottest outfield names in the sport this summer, not because he's struggling, but because he is demanding a challenge and has nowhere to go. The Dodgers simply have too many outfielders ahead of him. MLB.com's own trade-deadline breakdown noted the Dodgers have six outfielders on the industry Top 100 list, and pointed out something that matters here: four of them, Hope included, hit left-handed.

That's the wrinkle Detroit should care about. The Tigers' core pieces and upper levels are stacked with lefty bats of their own — Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith, Bryce Rainer, Josue Briceno, and Max Clark. The young, controllable talent in the system all hits from the left side. That's where Mike Sirota and Eduardo Quintero enter the conversation. Both are right-handed-hitting outfielders inside the Dodgers' Top 100 group, and both would fill a niche need Detroit's system doesn't currently have an answer for, rather than adding to a surplus it already has.

A real rotation arm with upside plus a right-handed bat that actually solves a roster construction problem, without touching a Josue De Paula (LA’s version of Made) — that's the offer L.A. can make without gutting its system.

And if Detroit wants a little extra sweetener thrown in just to get a deal across the finish line, the Dodgers have the depth to do that too, almost as a formality.James Tibbs III, a left-handed-hitting outfielder in Triple-A who's already flashed plus power, is sitting behind the big league roster with nowhere obvious to play. Kendall George, a burner in Double-A who is amongst the league leaders in the Texas League in stolen bases, is in the same boat. Ching-Hsien Ko is doing it in Single-A. Zach Ehrhard and Ryan Ward round out a Triple-A outfield that reads like a Top 30 list on its own. 

None of it changes the shape of the deal, but it's a reminder of just how deep this minor league system runs — L.A. could reasonably attach a name like that almost as a courtesy and barely feel it. Nobody in baseball has more outfield depth to deal from, and that's the entire point. Unless Milwaukee blinks and puts Made on the table, the Dodgers can likely match or top anything the Brewers are willing to send to Detroit.

Final Prediction: The Tigers accept the Dodgers' trade offer of: Justin Wrobleski, Mike Sirota, and James Tibbs III for Tarik Skubal over the Brewers offer of Logan Henderson, Luis Pena, and Andrew Fischer.

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