How Dodgers can navigate future payroll knowing Kyle Tucker will never opt out

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield is about to get unmanageably crowded in the future because Kyle Tucker isn’t playing well enough to opt out of his contract. It’s not the worst problem to have, given that Tucker has a pedigree of an excellent player, but he hasn’t played that way so far this year.

With Andy Pages emerging in a big way, he now owns center with Tucker in right. That leaves one seat for a prospect group that might be deep enough to fill two outfields. And, as Blake Harris recently claimed, you can’t play them all. So let’s take the premise at face value and see where it goes.

Kyle Tucker’s struggles are making his Dodgers opt-out unlikely

Tucker has the lowest wRC+ of any Dodger with at least 200 plate appearances this season. Tucker’s 110 wRC+ isn’t bad by any stretch, but it’s a far cry from the career 138 wRC+ he’d put together coming into the season. He's shown some signs of life recently, but the bottom line is he’s a corner bat who hasn’t produced as expected while taking on a huge amount of money. 

Tucker’s deal carries a record $57.1 million present-value AAV and $60 million player options in both 2028 and 2029. To walk away from that, he’d have to be pretty confident he could secure another one of the largest contracts we’ve seen.

It’s possible he walks away from all that money, but the Dodgers can’t plan on it. In fact, they need to plan on the fact that he’s going to be around for three more years beyond this one.

The picture in the outfield gets pretty clear pretty fast. Pages is young and producing like a cornerstone. He’s got center field on lockdown. Teoscar Hernandez is signed through 2027 and feels fairly locked into left field, though there’s likely trade value. If they keep him around, that’s all three outfield spots accounted for without much time at DH due to Shohei Ohtani. Even if they move Hernandez, that still leaves just one spot. 

And it’s one spot for a group of players the front office raves about. Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota, James Tibbs III, and Charles Davalan are a group that Andrew Friedman has called the most talented collection of outfield prospects he’s ever assembled.

De Paula, Hope and Sirota are a couple of steps away from the big leagues. Tibbs is one step away. The others aren’t quite there, but are progressing nicely. So even if Hernandez is gone, there’s still just one spot for all of them. 

If there really is such a thing as a payroll problem for the Dodgers, this is it. The Dodgers paid a crazy amount on the collective bargaining tax in 2025 and will do so again in 2026. They’re taxed at the highest possible rate because they consistently exceed the tax and the highest threshold.

If Tucker’s $60 million is a fixed cost through 2029, and it arguably will be due to current production, the only relief valve they have is cheap, controllable talent. That’s exactly what the prospect group should help them achieve. So it’s nice to have that talent. 

With all these prospects and nowhere to put them, the easiest answer is that the Dodgers have trade chips to go get the best available players at the upcoming trade deadline, but also during the offseason and 2027 trade deadline. They arguably have some of the most coveted prospect bats available to go get someone like Tarik Skubal. The Dodgers have shown they’ll trade from depth rather than hoard it. That seems to be the most likely situation. 

There is the long shot that Tucker ultimately opts out and the Dodgers will need to fill two spots after the 2028 season. If he rediscovers what made him so great prior to signing with LA, he could easily be on the road to a six- or seven-year deal that would well exceed what he would make in the final two years of his current contract. They’d lose the bat (though maybe they’d just re-sign him themselves) but they’d be able to open the outfield up for a promising bat who doesn’t run such a high cost. 

That’s the through-line. Take the headline at its word that Tucker never opts out, and understand that it’s true that the market won’t pay him enough. With a lockout likely looming after the season and the CBT thresholds (at least) set for renegotiation, controllable outfield talent may be the second-most valuable asset the organization has. But they definitely can’t play them all. 

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