How long is Roki Sasaki's leash as he enters pivotal Dodgers sophomore season?

Roki Sasaki is, by far, the most pressing question of the Dodgers' 2026 season, and he makes his first start of the year tonight against the Guardians.

The Dodgers are hoping they'll see a different version of Sasaki from the one who threw four disastrous starts in spring training — the last of which was as recent as March 23. His velocity has recovered (his fastball was up to 99 in camp), but his command has disappeared. He's been making in-game adjustments, but even when they work (and they don't always work), damage has already been done.

Through Sunday, the Dodgers are 3-0. It isn't the end of the world if they lose with Sasaki on the mound, and it won't be the end of the world if they lose his next time out, too.

But, if this all goes as badly as Dodgers fans fear it will, at what point do they finally admit defeat and send him to Triple-A? It (eventually) worked wonders for him last year.

After Sasaki's last appearance in spring training, Dave Roberts said, "I don't think that you can completely bank on or evaluate spring training or an exhibition game. But yeah, it hasn't been great. It really hasn't. And we know that. The standard needs to be better."

But he still reemphasized his belief in Sasaki, which was echoed by GM Brandon Gomes, who said that sending Sasaki down "hasn't even entered our minds."

So at what point will the Dodgers finally admit that their new golden boy isn't ready for the big time?

Predicting how bad Roki Sasaki will have to be for Dodgers to finally demote him to Triple-A

We have to guess that it'll take even more outright disaster for the Dodgers to even entertain the idea. Sasaki's last start was an absolute, 100%, unmitigated disaster: two innings, zero hits, five earned runs, two hit batters, six walks.

But the Dodgers have clearly been living in their own world with Sasaki, so they might take even the most marginal of improvements as a sign that he belongs.

It's been baffling and will remain baffling. It's not hard to figure out why Sasaki is getting such special treatment — the Dodgers had to do a lot to get to him LA, and sending him down would make them a laughingstock — but it's going to reflect even more poorly on them the longer they just let him struggle.

Maybe Sasaki will pitch like a monster tonight and we'll have to take it all back. For the sake of everyone involved, we hope that's how it turns out. But if he doesn't, and the Dodgers insist on staying in fantasy land and trying to gaslight fans into believing that improvements are right around the corner ... it's going to get ugly.