When the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Eric Lauer from the Toronto Blue Jays, the plan was for him to be something of a sacrificial lamb. Lauer's job was supposed to be soaking up innings to save the bullpen in low-leverage situations, but things quickly turned on a dime. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell went down, Lauer moved into the rotation, and since then he's proved to be a vital cog.
Now, though, the southpaw's vitality is in question. Snell is one of several injured Dodgers about to make his return, and if all goes well, Glasnow won't be too far behind him. Suddenly, a rotation that needed depth has a plethora of options. That's led Dodgers insider Katie Woo to suggest that Los Angeles could now look to capitalize on Lauer's resurgence at the trade deadline.
Woo drew the comparison between Lauer and Dustin May, the latter of whom was traded at last year's deadline for a package that included James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard. Tibbs III has since become a rising star in Los Angeles's farm system and now could potentially be used to land a player of a much higher caliber than May.
There are some who could be opposed to moving Lauer. Depth is important, and Dodgers starters aren't known for being the picture of health. But that could also be the exact reason why trading the 31-year-old makes sense. Not every team can afford the top-end options to add to their rotations, but nearly every contender could use a reliable innings eater with postseason experience.
Dodgers selling high on Eric Lauer is a brilliant way to capitalize at the trade deadline
What path Los Angeles ultimately takes at the trade deadline is anyone's guess. Woo has indicated that Andrew Friedman will be more reserved and instead focus on rebalancing assets in the outfielder-heavy farm system, while others have predicted that the club will be much more aggressive.
One thing nearly everyone agrees on is the fact that if Tarik Skubal becomes available, the Dodgers will be ready to pounce. The Detroit Tigers are starting to slide again in the standings, potentially bringing that dream closer to reality.
The issue is that acquiring Skubal will be expensive, and Friedman has been very careful to continue building out the minor league pipeline in recent years. That means restocking the minors after making a big splash is imperative.
Lauer isn't going to generate a blockbuster return, but the soft-tossing southpaw could bring back something similar to what May generated, if not more. That could be good enough for LA as the team balances present and future needs.
Additionally, trading Lauer is prudent because, even without an external addition, he's unlikely to make the playoff rotation or even the postseason roster for that matter.
There are also some real regression red flags in Lauer's profile. Looking just at his time in LA, his 3.35 ERA could be a little misleading. That's because his BABIP is a ridiculously low .207 and his left on-base rate of 88.5% is astronomically high. Both metrics are due for some regression to the mean, and when they do, he'll look more like the pitcher his 5.45 FIP indicates that he's been.
So here the Dodgers have the opportunity to make a smart business decision. They bought Lauer when his value was at its lowest point, and now they're poised to sell him right when his value has reached an all-time high. That's just smart business, regardless of what the club's overarching trade deadline strategy will be.
