James Outman's spiral after Dodgers' 2023 campaign needs to be studied

After Andy Pages' historic struggles during the playoffs last October, his resurgence at the start of this season has carried the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's been a reminder that player development is not linear. While Pages has been a reminder not to write off a young player after a rough patch, there are also instances where a prospect makes his debut, appears to be ascending toward superstardom, and then suddenly fades away into obscurity.

In other words, they are James Outman. After turning heads with the Dodgers in a small sample size during the 2022 season, Outman nearly won Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. In 567 plate appearances, Outman slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 home runs and a wRC+ of 117.

There were other factors, certainly, but Outman's ascension was one of the reasons LA was comfortable with non-tendering Cody Bellinger after the 2022 season. As it turns out, Outman's time with the Dodgers would have a similar feel to it.

James Outman's spiral is an important prospect reminder for the Dodgers.

Red flags started rising in 2024. Swing-and-miss has always been a part of Outman's profile, even as he was ascending through the Dodgers' system, but his strikeout rate ballooned to 35.3% following his rookie campaign. He was walking less, and there was noticeable regression. Instead of being a fixture in the outfield for the Dodgers, he was an up-and-down depth piece. In 148 plate appearances, he slashed .147/.256/.265 with a wRC+ of 53.

2025 very much felt like it was going to be Outman's last opportunity with the Dodgers, especially with Pages all but taking over in center field. It was a lost cause, considering he hit under .100 and his strikeout rate jumped to nearly 41%.

Outman was traded to the Minnesota Twins at the deadline last summer, and his spiral has continued. His power flashed signs of returning, but he struck out 43.3% of the time in 104 plate appearances with the Twins at the end of last year, and it's gotten even worse at the start of this season. He's hitless through his first 13 plate appearances this season and is striking out in over half of his at-bats.

It's hard to imagine that Outman has much of a future left at the major league level. The Twins may be one of the few teams willing to give him plate appearances, considering they don't exactly have much talent across their roster.

The Dodgers have since moved on, thanks to Pages and the sheer number of top outfield prospects they have in their system, including James Tibbs III, making an early case to be on the major league roster. In other words, Outman has continued his descent into irrelevancy, but the Dodgers aren't losing sleep over it.