Basically nothing is stopping MLB from declaring a lockout on December 1, when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires. Both sides, the league/owners and players, are entrenched in their positions. Owners unanimously want a salary cap; players might never accept one.
A few proposals have already been exchanged — fruitless efforts to stop or delay the inevitable — but the latest from MLB offers to delay the implementation of a cap and floor until 2028, to give teams that might need to shed payroll to fit under the new $258.2 million threshold more time to do so.
This was a losing game from the beginning. The players wouldn't care if the league promised to put off a cap for 10-plus years — they would stand firm in their refusal to accept one.
In a world in which a cap implemented after the 2027 season were to be accepted, though, the Dodgers (as well as the other big spenders) would be uniquely affected. Jack Harris of the California Post wrote that the "impasse has left big-spending teams like the Dodgers in a pickle this winter, as they try to bolster their rosters while also accounting for the potential need to become cap-compliant."
MLB trying to kick the can down the road on a salary cap would affect Dodgers not only this offseason but next
Harris wrote that the Dodgers have been tentatively planning for some kind of grace period between the approval of a cap and it going into effect, which has led them to shorter-term deals like the one they gave Kyle Tucker in January.
But it hamstrings their ability to do anything massive this season. Their payroll would only reach more astronomical heights if they sign Tarik Skubal to a high AAV deal, which he'll almost certainly receive. Their 2027 payroll is already projected to land around $450 million, which means they would be forced to shed almost half before the beginning of the 2028, under the provisions of MLB's latest proposal.
Next year, acquisitions would have to fall by the wayside, because the Dodgers would have to be preoccupied trying to figure out which of their long-term deals to prioritize and which to trade away.
The fear of that happening is already dampening LA's typical approach to spending and free agency. Even though players are adamant there will never be a cap in baseball, teams still have to prepare for any eventuality.
