One logical prediction could tilt scales in Dodgers' favor with Kyle Tucker

The Los Angeles Dodgers like Kyle Tucker, but maybe not enough to pony up the $400 million many believed he would get when free agency began. That seemingly made him a long shot to be the latest star to be added to LA's constellation.

At that price, the Dodgers seem to be just fine pivoting to reuniting with an old friend, with the possibility of signing Cody Bellinger on the table.

As nice a player Bellinger is, there's no comparison between him and Tucker, and a recent survey of anonymous MLB executives makes it seem like the $400 million contract is no longer on the table for Tucker, which might put the Dodgers back in play.

MLB executives' Kyle Tucker contract prediction could be a Dodgers' dream

If $400 million truly isn't on the table for Tucker that might change his calculus this winter. As good as his 2025 season was, it wasn't up to his standard vintage. Tucker's .841 OPS was one of the lower marks of his career and stands 24 points below his career average of .865. And while not as drastic as 2024, an injury limited him to just 136 games.

That has led to some speculation that he could sign the exact kind of deal that the Dodgers desire.

"My prediction is that he will sign an [Alex] Bregman-type deal with a shorter-term, higher AAV and opt-out(s) in hopes of having a monster season in '26 or '27 and hitting the [free agent] market again coming off a better year. The Yankees seem well-positioned for a deal like that," one of these anonymous executives was quoted as saying.

That's a gambit that the Dodgers have tried and seen fail with the likes of Juan Soto and Bryce Harper, but the confluence of factors here could line up perfectly for this play to work with Tucker.

There's only one problem: a deal like that would have even more suitors lining up for Tucker than originally thought. Without a 10-year commitment on the table, the number of teams that can envision themselves affording a short-term, high AAV is only going to grow.

That's led these executives to believe that the New York Yankees are the favorite to wrestle away Tucker's services. In this case, the question will be whether or not Tucker values jumping into an ongoing dynasty or rebuilding one that has lost its past glory.

Lastly, there's the question of what happens next. Should Tucker go for this opt-out-laden deal in order to reset his market, or would he prefer to stay where he's at? If it's the Dodgers, the spending power ensures that they can afford the $400 million down the road if they so choose. If it's the Yankees who constantly whine about profit margins and budgetary constraints, Tucker might only be a one-year mercenary there. That might tip the scales in Los Angeles's favor now and in the future.