Padres are about to rue the day for trading top prospect to Dodgers years ago

You rarely see intra-division trades for a reason. Although bitter rivals can sometimes be at different points in their contention life cycles and have something to offer each other, the risk can outweigh the reward. We might be starting to see that coming to fruition from a Los Angeles Dodgers-San Diego Padres trade from March 2022.

The Padres were in need of some bench help, and the loaded Dodgers had an abundance of depth, leading the two clubs to consummate a trade involving four corners specialist Matt Beaty and (then) little-known pitching prospect River Ryan.

At the time, Ryan was an afterthought. Selected in the 11th round of the 2021 draft, he'd yet to throw a big league pitch. Signing for just $100K, there weren't high hopes for him. Meanwhile, Beaty was coming off a 2021 campaign that saw him post a 114 wRC+ over 234 plate appearances, giving off the appearance of a useful reserve who could cover a variety of positions.

Beaty would last for only a short time in San Diego. He hit an atrocious .093/.170/.163 over 47 plate appearances in 2022 with the Padres. That would be it for his time in San Diego, and after bouncing between the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals with no success in 2023, he has yet to resurface in the majors and has been out of baseball entirely since 2024.

Ryan, meanwhile, became a top prospect with Los Angeles, and while he's had his launch delayed due to Tommy John surgery, he could be poised for a major breakout in 2026.

River Ryan's 2026 season could make the Padres look absolutely foolish for giving him away to the Dodgers for nothing

Ryan made just four big league starts before going down with that unfortunate elbow injury, but with a 1.33 ERA in those appearances, one might say that the Dodgers already won the trade.

Now, though, Ryan could turn the deal into a major embarrassment for San Diego. Now fully healthy after missing the entire 2025 campaign, the 27-year-old is dealing in spring training so far.

Sure, it has only been three innings, but those three frames have been scoreless while Ryan has struck out 40% of the hitters he's faced and has yet to allow a hit. More importantly, he looks healthy, and his stuff is dominant.

The right-hander took advantage of his rehab time to add approximately 30 pounds of muscle to his frame with the hopes of becoming more durable. According to him, the added strength has allowed him to hit incredible velocities with ease, touching 100 miles per hour on the radar gun at points.

He was already well-positioned to win a spot in the Dodgers' six-man rotation, but now, with fellow injury-returnee Gavin Stone suffering a setback, his path back to a big league role is becoming clearer and clearer.

Should he continue to show out this spring, he'll be in the rotation for sure, and once there, he'll have a pretty good shot at picking up where he left off.

If Ryan can reach the potential he began building with the Dodgers following the trade, he will become a rock-solid starter. Should that happen, the Padres, a team that has been desperate for starting pitching help, will have egg all over their face.

Ryan reaching his potential is exactly why these intra-division trades are so rare, and if he manages to do it in 2026, one has to imagine that San Diego will be declining Andrew Friedman's calls for a very long time (if they aren't already).