3 concerns about Dodgers expected postseason pitching plan

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In a typical year, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a feared pitching staff -- specifically featuring their starting rotation -- heading into the postseason. Though more often than not they've been let down by some of their bigger names, it's still always better to have the support and hope for the best rather than ... have a skeleton crew and also hope for the best?

Because the latter scenario is what the 2023 Dodgers are experiencing right now. They have 70% of Clayton Kershaw, a rookie in Bobby Miller, and a mixed bag with Lance Lynn as their rotation heading into October. Though Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan represent lightning bolt multi-inning options, they have limited MLB experience and no playoff experience. Ryan Yarbrough is a nice commodity to have, but not as a featured pitcher in need of securing a win.

As a result of the dysfunction that's both been unexpected and their own doing, the Dodgers will have an "unconventional" postseason plan, which, even without knowing the details, sounds frightening for a fan ready to sit down and watch any given playoff baseball game.

But now that we know some of the details thanks to MLB reporter Alden Gonzalez (subscription required), Dodgers fans really need to brace for either a disappointing playoff exit or a run for the ages that will be an unrelenting, stress-inducing experience.

3 concerns about Dodgers expected postseason pitching plan

Kershaw not going three times through the order?

A lot of fans probably already knew this, but Gonzalez reported it's unexpected Kershaw faces an opposing order three times through, which will more often than not limit him to 4-5 innings of work. And while we absolutely adore Kershaw, his postseason track record might suggest a danger zone of 2-3 innings here and there.

Kershaw's ailing shoulder is very much holding him back, which explains why he's decreasing his fastball usage and hasn't thrown more than 84 pitches in a single outing since coming off the IL on Aug. 10.

This, realistically, leaves Miller and Lynn as the only two options to deliver six-plus innings in a playoff start. And let's say Kershaw goes five shutout in a best-case scenario with the Dodgers locked in a scoreless tie. Who follows him to keep the Dodgers on track?

The playoffs very much force managers into corners and force them to use whoever is available, but having to piggyback Kershaw starts when you know there's a likelihood for one bullpen game as well as one blowup start really puts immense pressure on the team's relievers.

Dodgers Openers ...

Yes, the Dodgers plan to use openers. We don't like it. Though they've worked out more times than not in 2023, they just never seem to be a winning formula in the postseason, something the Dodgers have experienced multiple times.

If the Dodgers plan to use Pepiot or Sheehan for four or more innings, expect an opener to kick off the proceedings for the two right-handers. Stuck with one just lefty starter, expect Roberts to utilize Caleb Ferguson if the opponent has two or more lefties atop the order in an attempt to neutralize them right off the bat.

But again, this makes an already chaotic bullpen situation even more chaotic. Take Ferguson, for example. He's one of three lefties in the bullpen, with Yarbrough and Alex Vesia as the others. Yarbrough won't be coming in to face two or three lefties in the eighth inning of a tight game. There's still an argument for Vesia to not even make the postseason roster. Using Ferguson that early hurts you for later in the game.

Take Brusdar Graterol as another example. He's the best Dodgers reliever this year, pitching to a 1.24 ERA, 3.09 FIP and 1.00 WHIP in 66 games. Using him in the first creates a more wobbly bridge to Evan Phillips in a save situation. Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly have been good as of late since coming off the IL, but they've both seen limited action for LA this year.

The Dodgers will have to do what they have to do, but the pitfalls are easy to spot on the surface for using an opener.

History not on Dodgers' side

OK ... but this might be how the Dodgers wanted it! Pressure removed. Expectations a bit more modest. More doubters floating to the surface. It was all part of Andrew Friedman's offseason plan when he was downgrading and making cost-effective additions.

But perhaps having historic trends not on their side wasn't part of that plan? Here's what Gonzalez laid out in his story:

Only five teams have reached the World Series with a higher regular-season starters' ERA than the Dodgers current mark, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, and none since the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. Only four got there with more than 50 regular-season starts taken by rookies, and only one -- the 2013 Cardinals -- did so in the past 70 years. Just four teams have won it all while averaging less than five innings per start during the postseason, though two of them did it very recently -- the 2021 Atlanta Braves and the 2020 Dodgers.
Alden Gonzalez, ESPN

Let's start from the top. That 2006 Cardinals team, don't forget, had Adam Wainwright in the bullpen, who didn't allow a single earned run across 9.2 postseason innings. Jeff Weaver also came back to life that October, giving up just nine runs in his five total starts (29.2 innings). Jeff Suppan won NLCS MVP. This was a very, very evident outlier of a success story.

And then there are the 2013 Cardinals. Cool team, but they got boatraced in the World Series by an even more mysterious Red Sox team. The rookies on St. Louis' staff that year were ... Shelby Miller (!), Tyler Lyons, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha. Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly were also on this team in their second seasons.

How did they fare in the postseason? Wacha dominated throughout, but got shelled in Game 6 of the Fall Classic (which clinched it for Boston). Miller didn't pitch beyond the NLDS. Lyons didn't pitch at all. Martinez pitched well out of the bullpen, which was his primary role during the regular season. The difference here is the Cardinals had a very good bullpen and enough overall pitching depth to absorb bad performances or having to leave the rookies off the roster. The 2023 Dodgers don't.

So there you have it. Three legitimate reasons to fear any non-traditional pitching plan devoid of three top-notch starters. It could work, but there's no comfort in it until we can see the results. Here's to hoping for a one-of-a-kind playoff run. That'll make the stress worthwhile.

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