3 Dodgers free agents who will leave, and 2 who will return in 2024

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The Los Angeles Dodgers thought they'd built a new-and-improved version of the 2022 111-win team by leaning on grit and tenacity in 2023, and look how far it got them.

Despite Dino Ebel's proclamation that the '23 Dodgers were better suited for October than their predecessors, they went less far, flaming out in a first-round sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks, who wanted it more. Maybe next time, Dino Ebel will listen to his brothers, Hearno Ebel and Speakno Ebel, and just keep quiet.

Turns out it doesn't really matter how gritty you are if you can't pitch a single scoreless inning, and the playoff Dodgers found themselves behind the eight ball repeatedly in the NLDS. First, Clayton Kershaw sank them with a singular postseason meltdown. Then, just when fans had shaken it off, Bobby Miller poked a hole in the balloon. Finally, Lance Lynn toed the rubber, remembered he'd allowed 44 home runs during the regular season, and decided to do what he did best.

Any way you slice it, the Dodgers' 2023 ending was an outright disaster. This time around, the knee-jerk reactions demanding massive turnover are probably ... well, pretty close to accurate. This Dodgers team is about to lose a lot of free agents. Some will be shoved aside in favor of headline-grabbing names. Some will receive raises elsewhere. Some might just back off from the limelight of their own volition.

Either way, the 2024 Dodgers will look much different, as the vast majority of their free agent class departs.

Dodgers Free Agency: Rumors predict massive roster shakeup

Dodgers Free Agent Who Will Leave: JD Martinez

JD Martinez lived up to his "Just Dingers" moniker in this year's postseason, even when the rest of the Dodgers morphed into Just Dribblers.

The Dodgers' DH homered once in three games against the Diamondbacks after a resurgent regular season where he posted a 134 OPS+ and 33 bombs while sharing a locker room with his preferred offensive guru, Robert Van Scoyoc.

Unfortunately, if the Dodgers are going to pursue Shohei Ohtani with vigor this offseason -- and, at this point, there's zero excuse not to -- then the 36-year-old Martinez is guaranteed to be a casualty.

Even if the Dodgers come up short on an Ohtani contract, Martinez had enough of a bounce back season that it's hard to envision him waiting around for LA to sift through the fine print with the Japanese slugger. Surely, he found the Dodgers experience comforting this summer, with his familiar hitting coach and old teammate Mookie Betts by his side. But ... comforting enough to turn down multi-year pacts elsewhere in case the Dodgers whiff on Ohtani? Not so much.

Dodgers Free Agent Who Will Leave: Lance Lynn

There was a time -- not that long ago! -- where we would've wondered whether the Dodgers would pick up Lynn's $18 million option or find a cheaper way to keep him in town. Either way, Lynn in Dodger Blue in 2024 felt like a fait accompli.

Now that he's coming off a history-making playoff homer fest, as a 36-year-old whose magic fastball appears to be zapped? Yeah. Uh. Enjoy San Francisco?

Lynn shouldn't be "$18 million expensive" next season, and the Dodgers certainly do have plenty of holes in the rotation that must be filled. But if Lynn didn't pick up what Mark Prior was putting down this summer, why would it suddenly click over the winter?

Despite insistence that they could "fix" him, Lynn instead messed around and confounded the Dodgers' brass like a trifling romantic partner. His ERA went down, but the strikeouts -- the thing LA was banking on -- decreased. Lynn whiffed 144 men in 119.2 innings in Chicago, but a paltry 47 in 64 innings with the Dodgers. He was acquired to miss bats. He stopped missing them when he arrived, leading to an FIP increase from 5.19 to 6.16 once he got to California.

Someone's going to touch him with a 10-foot pole, but it shouldn't be Andrew Friedman.

Dodgers Free Agent Who Will Leave: Clayton Kershaw

Prior to Game 3 of the NLDS, legendary left-hander Clayton Kershaw spent some time alone on the field, according to FanSided's insider Robert Murray, soaking in the muted bliss of an empty stadium. This proves that he had next to no faith in Lance Lynn extending the series but, more importantly, seems like a signifier that he's at least contemplating walking away.

Kershaw's Dodgers swan song was the saddest variety imaginable, and if he doesn't want to leave the game on that note, it'd be understandable. But the game just might leave him first. Second and third medical opinions undoubtedly await, and based on the end result of the 2023 season, there's a good chance that whatever's hiding in his shoulder is more nefarious than he and the team are letting on.

For years, it's been "Dodgers or Rangers or Retirement" for Kershaw, but with Texas in the ALCS with a large degree of expensive pitching depth at their disposal, it's hard to see a likely fit there. That leaves the Dodgers or the ol' dusty trail, and while it feels a year or two too soon on the surface, Kershaw's body will dictate the story for him. And, before Game 3, Kershaw's body told him to waltz out to the foul line and take it all in.

Dodgers Free Agent Who Will Return: Kiké Hernández

Not much in terms of player acquisition went right for the Dodgers -- including the trade deadline, which was viewed as a buy-low rejuvenizing coup at the time.

Amed Rosario parlayed an intriguing few weeks into a spot at home in October. Lynn's journey was well-covered above. Ryan Yarbrough was left off the roster, too. But Kiké Hernández did exactly what he pledged to, short of bringing Justin Turner back from Boston with him.

After posting a limp .599 OPS with the Red Sox, who pressed him into nonsensical full-time shortstop duty, Hernández recovered to earn a good degree of October playing time by posting a .262 average with a .731 OPS in Los Angeles in the second half. He may not be the star he appeared to be in Boston in 2021 after receiving a full-fledged opportunity, but he's an excellent fourth outfielder/100-game starter-type.

He got the chance to prove that he could be something more in Beantown, then returned to Dodger Blue when the going got rough. There's no reason for the Dodgers to let a piece of their winning culture go once again.

Dodgers Free Agent Who Will Return: Jason Heyward

Jason Heyward played the 2023 season like he was on a mission to reestablish his relevance after a swing tweak seemed poised to return him to the land of the living. Freddie Freeman saw it, and gave the Dodgers the heads up that his old minor-league Braves teammate from way back in the pipeline had a little something working.

Turns out, the pair of ex-Bravos was correct; Heyward put up 1.9 bWAR, 15 homers, a 117 OPS+, and a 2.5 Memorable Rain Delay Speeches Above Average. He wasn't just the 26th man who held the clubhouse together that it seemed like he might be when spring training wrapped. He was super glue, helping to patch together the outfield while returning to the exit velocities of his youth.

While Heyward can earn a slight pay bump on the $720k (!!!) he ended up making on a whim in 2023, it would be foolish for the Dodgers to look elsewhere just because their chemistry faltered in a small sample size yet again. Clubhouse pep isn't a reason to bring back David Peralta, but it's a piece of Heyward's puzzle -- which also just so happens to include an above-average bat.

Los Angeles needs to change some foundational things. They don't need to change everything. Heyward should stay.

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