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3 Dodgers-Padres trades LA fans wish would happen, but won’t
There's almost no shot that the Padres would help the Dodgers with a trade, but it's nice to dream.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have restored order to the universe and reclaimed the top spot in the division thanks to a combination of good play and the Diamondbacks coming back down to earth. That puts them in a strong position heading into the trade deadline, especially since the team that most people thought would give LA the most trouble, the San Diego Padres, looks more likely to be sellers than buyers.
The Padres' collapse in 2023 has been pretty wild. Despite having a top-five pitching staff in all of baseball by fWAR at 11.1, San Diego is still below .500 for the season. A big part of that has just been good ol' fashioned underperformance with guys like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts not being quite as good as hoped, and Jake Cronenworth, Nelson Cruz, Rougned Odor and Matt Carpenter being duds. Getting unlucky sure hasn't helped either as their run differential (+46) is better than two division leaders at the moment while their expected W-L is a full seven games better than their actual record.
This has been great news for Dodgers fans because it's one less team that could challenge them ... in addition to the general joy of watching a division rival erupt into a dumpster fire. However, San Diego's struggles could also dramatically alter the trade deadline because it is very possible the Padres could end up being sellers at the deadline.
Any trade of note between the Padres and Dodgers is basically dead on arrival, especially after LA fleeced AJ Preller in the Matt Beaty deal last year. It's already going to be hard enough for San Diego to actually bail on all of the resources they have sunk into this season. Moving good players to a division rival is the sort of thing that gets general managers fired, and Preller knows that (as crazy as he is). However, that doesn't mean it isn't nice to think about how good some of these potentially available Padres players would look in Dodger Blue.
Here are 3 Dodgers-Padres that we wish could happen, but won't
To be clear, these are not trades that could ever realistically happen or even SHOULD happen. The Padres are not running a charity over there and even if they could ever be convinced to make a deal with the Dodgers at all, the in-division premium they would charge would be absurd. This is strictly looking at the Dodgers' needs at the moment and seeing who the Padres have that could fit the bill. Don't worry, we'll talk about potential payroll concerns as well.
Lets look at three Padres players we wish the Dodgers could pilfer at the trade deadline.
Blake Snell would be an amazing trade target for the Dodgers
It's hardly a secret that Dodgers are looking to add a starting pitching at the trade deadline. Julio Urías is back, but with Clayton Kershaw on the IL with shoulder issues, the Dodgers are currently placing a lot of hope in some young arms to be able to make it through the second half.
Trade options like Lucas Giolito and Jordan Montgomery have been mentioned a ton as the top end of the trade market, and both remain very reasonable options. However, if the Padres were to make Blake Snell available in trade, he would instantly become arguably the best rental starter trade option on the market at the trade deadline.
Snell has been awesome this season with a 2.71 ERA in 19 starts in 2023, and his recent run over this last 11 outings has been incredible. The strikeouts are still there, and while his walk rate and chase rate haven't been great, the rest of his peripherals look really good this season. He's on pace to have his best season since 2018 when he won the Cy Young, which is a really good place for him to be in his walk year.
Aside from the "the Padres won't want to trade with the Dodgers" problem, there are a couple other wrinkles in the Dodgers adding Snell. First, Snell is making real money this season at $16 million, which is problematic for the Dodgers, who want to keep funds tight in preparation for a Shohei Ohtani pursuit. Secondly, Snell hasn't been the healthiest guy the last few years, which may bring some risk that he wouldn't hold up in the second half.
All of that said, it would still be sweet if the Dodgers could actually make a push for Snell. LA could find other moves to make to free up some money if they really needed to, and Snell is exactly the kind of arm that LA needs in their rotation the rest of the way.
Juan Soto would be a pipe dream even if the Padres were willing to trade him to the Dodgers
This one is a bit harder to visualize because, while it may be possible that San Diego decides to sell some players at the trade deadline this season, they almost certainly want to compete in 2024, and Juan Soto is under contract through next season. With the core that the Padres have, they still look very good on paper next year. And with all they have invested, trading away a superstar of Soto's stature is a bit tough to sell.
However, let's assume a world where the Padres decide the return they could get for Soto would help their roster more in 2024 than hanging onto him. All of a sudden, moving him makes a lot more sense. This is particularly true if the Padres also decide that trying pay Soto in the long-term is just too much considering how thin their payroll is stretched already.
For the Dodgers, getting a player like Soto would be an enormous upgrade. David Peralta, Chris Taylor, and Jason Heyward have their moments, but they're not even in the same stratosphere as Soto. The Dodgers don't have a ton of places where they can upgrade their offense, but the outfield is one of them, and Soto would be the upgrade to end all upgrades.
Unfortunately, trading for Soto presents the same financial challenges that trading for Snell would, to an even higher degree. Soto is making $23 million this season, and while the Dodgers would only be responsible for less than half of that, that's still a lot of money to count against the luxury tax. There's also the prospect cost problem, as Soto with an extra year of team control would require the Dodgers to clean out the top of their farm system even if they didn't play in the same division as the Padres.
In short, this isn't going to happen because there are just too many hurdles to overcome. However, it is fun to dream about how amazing this already potent lineup would be with Soto in it.
Josh Hader would take the Dodgers' bullpen to the next level
Going into the second half of the 2023 season, the Dodgers' bullpen currently ranks as the fourth best by fWAR (3.9) in the entire league. Evan Phillips, Caleb Ferguson, and Brusdar Graterol have been great at holding down the late innings of games for LA. However, every single contender should look to add bullpen depth at the trade deadline, and that's where we wish Josh Hader could come into play.
After weirdly struggling last year with both the Brewers and the Padres, it looks like Hader has found himself again in 2023. He has posted a 1.00 ERA in 38 appearances this season with 54 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. The walks are a little concerning, but one can live with them considering the quality of his stuff and the fact that his Statcast page is still baseball geek porn.
Other than just being a very, very good reliever, Hader has the added bonus of being a pending free agent which, in theory, should keep any potential asking price from the Padres lower. However, he's also not cheap in terms of payroll -- he's making $14.1 million this season which, aside from the Dodgers' specific payroll concerns, is a lot to pay any reliever.
In the end, Hader does seem like a guy that could be on the move if the Padres do decide to sell as a pending free agent. However, between the Dodgers wanting to possibly reset their luxury tax penalties and the whole "AJ Preller would cut his own arm before helping the Dodgers" thing, this is another move where we will just have to wonder what might have been.
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