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3 reasons the Dodgers' deal with Shohei Ohtani could be a horrific mistake
The Dodgers' deal with Shohei Ohtani might not be the slam dunk it appears to be.
No one -- I repeat --no one should actually be upset that the Los Angeles Dodgers landed Shohei Ohtani unless they just don't want the Dodgers to have nice things and/or because their team couldn't secure his signature. A certain amount of jealousy and pettiness under those circumstances is to be expected and, frankly, respected to an extent.
In a vacuum, though, Ohtani's free agency and subsequent contract has boosted interest in the offseason and the game of baseball on a global scale. He's going to be playing in a huge market, which should showcase his talents even further, and the structure of his contract is just delightfully weird and allows the Dodgers to remain fixtures in the offseason rumor mill. Folks may be mad at the end result, but there's no denying baseball fans truly cared about the outcome one way or the other.
That said, Ohtani's deal being nothing but positive for the Dodgers is a bit misleading. Yes, Ohtani deferred most the money owed to him to lessen the luxury tax hit and yes, the marketing dollars and ticket sales will roll in with him on LA's roster. However, what's being undersold is the number of risks that the Dodgers have inherited even with Ohtani being a once-in-a-century type of player. There are a number of ways that signing Ohtani to the contract to end all contracts could end very poorly for LA even if the first few years go very well for both sides.
3 reasons the Dodgers' deal with Shohei Ohtani could be a horrific mistake
Long-term contracts almost never end well in baseball
The reality of the game of baseball is that all players are working against time. Other than a few exceptions to the rule, performance is expected to decline once a player hits around age 30. Father Time is cruel, but that's just how things go for the most part. What assurances do the Dodgers have that Shohei, who is 29 and now under contract for the next decade, is going to remain the force of nature?
A cursory look at the more recent long-term deals on both sides of the ball should cause some skepticism here. Miguel Cabrera ended up getting 10 years and $292 million from the Tigers, but every season he had from 2017-onward was middling to actively bad. Albert Pujols got 10 years and $254 million from the Angels and he couldn't stay healthy or turn back time. The Yankees would love to shed the remainder of the 13-year, $325 million contract owed to Giancarlo Stanton they inherited when they acquired him from the Marlins. Javy Baez and Anthony Rendon are both on deals their teams regret having on their books.
The long-term pitching deals are even worse. Madison Bumgarner swindled the Diamondbacks into giving him five years and $85 million when his best days were clearly behind him. Stephen Strasburg got seven years and $245 million from the Nationals and has only pitched eight times over the last four seasons. Patrick Corbin is one of the worst starters in baseball after getting a nine-figure deal. Chris Sale can't stay healthy in Boston after getting $145 million. All of these guys were top end talents when they signed and all of their deals ended up being disasters.
That might not be the same story for Ohtani, but these are the facts.
Shohei Ohtani may not ever be the pitcher he was again with the Dodgers
Some make think that Shohei is a different class of player that's somehow immune to the declines that the league has seen with such long-term deals. While that optimism could prove to be correct, what complicates matters is that there's a real possibility Ohtani, who had his second major elbow surgery in 2023, will never be the pitcher he once was.
The list of guys who have had two Tommy John surgeries and have come back to pitch well isn't particularly long. Nathan Eovaldi is best source of hope here. He's a power arm like Ohtani and he has pitched quite well since going under the knife back in 2016 for the second time, even with some other IL stints since then. Jameson Taillon and Chris Capuano did well with two elbow surgeries, but then there are the less fortunate cases like Josh Johnson and Kris Medlen, whose careers were basically over afterwards. On top of that, we still have no idea what Jacob deGrom, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, or Shane McClanahan are going to look like when they get back from their second procedures.
For Ohtani to find success on the mound, he simply has to have his best power stuff. For as good of a pitcher he's been, Ohtani has never been a guy that dots the corners, nor has he gotten hitters to chase out of the zone. He needs to have his best stuff to overpower the opposition.
In the worst-case scenario, the Dodgers will have committed $700 million to a full-time DH (but a really good one that happens to be an international icon). That's way above market value even if you're feeling generous and account for his deferrals and decreased luxury tax hit. Plus, a full-time DH isn't going to have the same off-field juice as the best two-way player in the history of baseball, which leads us to ...
Shohei Ohtani's marketing dollars aren't a sure thing long-term
Look, no one is going to deny that having Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers is a good business decision in the short-term. Hell, the guy already broke jersey sales records since agreeing to terms with LA, and that money train is going to keep rolling ... at least for now.
It may be true that Ohtani has a Taylor Swift-esque following in Japan, in addition to being one of the most marketable players stateside that MLB has right now. He printed money for the Angels and he's going to print some money for the Dodgers. However, fans have a short memory when it comes to performance, and that's where things could take a turn for the worse.
What happens if Ohtani only pitches for a couple more seasons? Are fans going to be lining up for the merch if he's 35 years old and hitting .240? How are Dodgers fans going to react if he gets hurt again? The Dodgers would love to think that Ohtani's off-field value is immune to his performance sliding or injuries, but that isn't how these things go.
For example, just take a look at the top jersey sales from 2019 alone. Sure, there's Aaron Judge topping the list with Bryce Harper second. Good news, right? After that, there's Cody Bellinger in third, Javier Baez in fourth, and Christian Yelich rounding out the top five. Bellinger had a nice bounce-back year in 2023, but he isn't funding anyone's retirement with merch sales. Baez has one of the worst contracts in baseball. Yelich is still a good player, but is a shell of his former self when it comes to drawing power after being hurt for a few years.
Life comes at you fast, and the Dodgers have to really hope Ohtani is truly going to go down in the history books as one of the best players ever. If he falls short, he might not even be able to pay for himself.
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