4 Dodgers players who will maintain their hot starts (and 1 who won't)

The Dodgers have gotten off to a topsy-turvy 7-6 start to the season. While the bullpen has recently shown many weaknesses, many Dodgers hitters (and some starting pitchers as well) have gotten off to hot starts to the season. Many Dodgers had deceivingly positive starts to the season, but have since cooled off, while many others have remained red hot. The Dodgers have the second-highest team OPS in MLB, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays (who are really just in a league of their own to start the season).

While such a small sample size might not lead to accurate stats and projections, matching stats with advanced data allows us to discern whether these starts are just flukes, or if these players are really doing something special.

It's time to examine some of those Dodgers who have gotten off to great starts to the season and decide whether the advanced metrics match with their actual production, indicating their hot streaks are potentially sustainable.

4 Dodgers Who Will Sustain Their Hot Starts (And One Who Won't)

James Outman

Will he maintain his start? Yes.

James Outman has impressed early on in his rookie season. But if you thought his 1.122 OPS, which ranks first among qualified NL rookies and seventh in all of MLB among qualified hitters (as of this writing) was an indicator of how great he has been to start the season, think again. Sure, the triples and home runs are nice, but Outman's advanced metrics might be even more impressive than just watching him play.

Before talking about strengths, Outman does have two major weaknesses: his strikeout rate (29.2%, 20th percentile), and his whiff rate (43.2%, 1st percentile). However, across the board, in virtually every other stat, he is on fire.

Outman is in the 91st percentile or higher in seven different metrics: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel %, BB%, sprint speed and outs above average. For those who are unfamiliar with advanced metrics, a stat with an "x" in front of it simply correlates to the expected value in that category, calculated by averaging the results of similarly-hit balls across various factors. What these stats tell us is that Outman's start to the year is not a fluke. His quality of contact, along with his great speed, has led to an amazing start to the year, and it actually looks sustainable. While Outman may not end the season with an OPS in the top ten of MLB, he has placed himself squarely in the upper echelon of MLB rookies this season.

Freddie Freeman

Will he maintain his start? Yes.

There are many unsurprising factors about Freddie's start to the 2023 season. First of all, it's Freddie Freeman! He has one of the most consistent track records when it comes to hitting stats in all of MLB, and that track record is a long one. Without even diving into advanced metrics, it's easy to picture Freddie keeping up his start to the 2023 season. However, his .940 OPS, ranking 21st in the NL, did not just come from his reputation. His data on balls in play is as good as any other hitter.

While Freeman is at least 20 percentiles above average in strikeout rate, walk rate, whiff rate, chase rate, average exit velocity and HardHit %, there are three main categories of Freeman's Statcast page that are by far the most important to start the season.

Those categories are Freeman's xwOBA, xBA and xSLG, which all rank 90th percentile or better to start the season. With Freeman's repuation as a well-rounded, all fields hitter, it is no surprise to see these numbers so high. Freeman consistently gets on base at a high clip, and having an xBA as high as he does (it's 99th percentile) so far indicates that he might contend for the batting title in 2023 again.

Julio Urías

Will he maintain his start? Yes.

Last year, the advanced metrics would have told you that Julio Urías had a better season statistically than he should have. His expected numbers were better than his actual numbers by a decent amount, but this season is different.

Urías' Stacast profile as a pitcher looks very similar to Will Smith's from a hitting perspective. Smith has a few extremely selective weaknesses, and with one exception, Urías is no different. He is below average in extension (how close a pitcher's release point is to the plate, the closer the better) and fastball velocity, but those two stats don't make up who Urías is as a pitcher at all. The only worrying stat for Urías is his below-average whiff rate.

When you look elsewhere in Urías' Statcast page, it is about as positive as it can get. Across the board, his numbers are great. As I mentioned earlier, Urías' whiff rate is below average. However, hitters are still struggling to lay off Urias' pitches, resulting in an 89th percentile chase rate.

Pair that chase rate with a walk rate of 3.0% (87th percentile) and a strikeout rate of 30.3% (82nd percentile), and you have an elite pitcher.

Urías contended for the NL Cy Young Award last year, but Statcast had his xERA at 2.81, while his actual ERA was 2.16. This year, Urias' significantly-improved strikeout rate (he has seen a 6% increase in strikeouts from last season's numbers) and a walk rate that was cut in half from last season have led him to a 1.98 xERA and a 1.50 actual ERA. While his Statcast numbers from last year seemed to suggest that a down year this season was possible, those same metrics from last season seem to indicate that Urías is on pace for the best season of his career so far.

Dustin May

Will he maintain his start? No.

As painful as this may be to write, and as much as I hope it doesn't happen, Dustin May's Statcast data does not correlate with his actual performance at all so far. If his walk rate (9.3%, 44th percentile league-wide) remains the same throughout the season, it would rank as the second-worst mark of his career, while his strikeout rate (17.6%, 29th percentile league-wide) would be the worst mark of his career. And yet, despite those peripherals, May has given up just three earned runs across his three starts and 18.1 innings so far.

Those numbers just don't bode well for a successful season. His xERA is a modest 3.40, but to say he has overachieved given his peripheral numbers this season would be an understatement. May is going to need to have better command as the year goes on, while also missing more bats.

We know May has the stuff to do it, and with his velocity still sitting at 96+ MPH on both his four-seam fastball and sinker, he certainly has the potential to keep up this level. But, using the data we have available so far, the conclusion that May will maintain this level unfortunately seems unlikely.