4 Dodgers who can win 2023 awards and where they currently stand
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After trailing the Diamondbacks in the NL West race for a good part of the first half of the season, the Dodgers went into the All-Star Break at 51-38, good enough for a first-place tie with Ariona. Since then, things have taken a sharp turn, in the Dodgers' favor of course.
While the Dodgers have gone 24-9 since the break, the Diamondbacks are just 12-22 and the Giants are 16-18 over that same span. The Dodgers quickly shifted from staring down a tight divisional race to an 11.5-game lead in the middle of August.
So what does that mean for the team and fans alike? Well, it might be time to take a closer look at individual performances rather than team performances with the Dodgers distancing themselves from the pack.
Of course, the Dodgers now have the opportunity to chase down the Atlanta Braves with the hope of claiming home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but in the final month and a half of the season, there will also be a few individual Dodgers chasing Braves in tight races for some highly-regarded hardware.
4 Dodgers who can win 2023 awards and where they currently stand
Freddie Freeman: No. 2 in NL MVP Race
A few months ago, it looked like the NL MVP race was over, with Braves superstar OF Ronald Acuña Jr. running away with the honor (literally and figuratively). Acuña remains the frontrunner, with a .331/.417/.569 slash line that ranks top five in the NL across the board. His major league-leading 56 stolen bases and 112 runs scored, all while hitting leadoff for the team with the best record in MLB, will play a big role in his candidacy.
But Acuña's former teammate and current Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman wasn't going to let Acuña run away with the award without making a run at it himself. While Acuña still has the NL lead in fWAR (6.1) and bWAR (6.3), Freeman has been on a tear recently that shrunk those leads significantly.
In the last 30 days, Freeman leads all of MLB in AVG (.430), OBP (.500), hits (43), doubles (11) and runs (29), all while the Dodgers have gone 20-7 in their last 27 games, which tied the Cubs for the best record in that span. While Acuña's won NL Player of the Month in both April and June, Freeman got on the board with a hot May, and could have won the award for July as well, had it not been for Cody Bellinger's ridiculous stretch while the Cubs worked their way back into the playoff race.
All that's to say Freeman's AVG (.333), OBP (.411), SLG (.575), OPS (.986), doubles (45) and runs scored (102) all rank in the top three in the NL. If he's able to carry over his strong performance from this recent stretch of games through the rest of the season and the Dodgers can do the same, this award might actually be in Freeman's hands. However, re-creating his last 30 days of games is a big if, even for Freeman, and the Dodgers catching the Braves for the best record might be an even bigger if.
Freeman's strong run already has him second in the NL in fWAR (6.0), just behind Acuña's 6.1 mark, so if he can continue his push and briong the Dodgers to the top spot in the NL, we could be having a very different conversation in a month.
Mookie Betts: No. 4 in NL MVP race
Although being No. 4 in the race this late into the year seems like an unenviable spot to be in, this year's NL MVP race is one of the closest we've seen in a while. If the season ended today, it's very likely that all of the top three (Acuña, Freeman and Matt Olson) candidates would get a few first-place votes, and I wouldn't put it past an MVP voter or two to give some credit to Betts as well. We have already discussed Acuña and Freeman's respective stats enough, but Olson gives a different type of candidacy for MVP. His strength is that he's a true slugger, anchoring the cleanup spot for the Braves. When Acuña, or other teammates Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley get on base, Olson is the guy to clean it up.
Olson leads the NL with 43 HRs, 108 RBI and a .601 SLG, and that clear separation from the rest of the league as the best cleanup hitter gives Olson an extremely good case for MVP. But outside of those numbers, he lacks the versatility that Freeman and Acuña have (each of them have clearly been better baserunners and defenders than Olson this season), and that's where Betts stays close in the MVP race. While Acuña has started every game in right field, and Freeman and Olson have started every game at first base, Betts has been all around the diamond, and his versatility with the Dodgers this season gives a different type of value that none of the other candidates have.
Betts has played 87 games in right field, but has added 42 games at second base and 16 games at shortstop, and his offensive numbers have stayed the same, regardless of having to adapt to playing multiple positions for the Dodgers.
His ability to play different positions has allowed the Dodgers to counter Gavin Lux's torn ACL, Miguel Rojas' injury issues/bad offense, and slumps from Miguel Vargas and others without requiring excessive roster moves. Through it all, Betts has posted a higher OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+ at the plate than he did during his two second-place MVP finishes in the past.
However, Mookie may be a victim of circumstances, as other than the AL MVP of 2016 (Mike Trout) and NL MVP of 2020 (Freddie Freeman), he separated himself from the rest of the hitters in the league, whereas this year, there are three other players having MVP-caliber seasons all at the same time. Betts still ranks top six in the National League in BB, 2B, R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG and OPS, which, paired with his versatility, makes a strong case for NL MVP from an across-the-board numbers standpoint. Without a very strong finish to the season from a slugging or on-base perspective, though, versatility alone won't be enough to propel Betts to winning MVP when judged against the other NL MVP candidates.
James Outman: 6th in NL ROTY race
Early on this season, Corbin Carroll had a decisive advantage in NL Rookie of the Year odds and was the popular pick for many to win the award. However, James Outman broke out with a ridiculous April, winning NL Rookie of the Month honors with a .292/.376/.615 line and 7 HR and 20 RBI. Unfortunately, Outman regressed in May, batting .165 with a .552 OPS, and followed that up with a June that saw him fail to hit a home run. Reds slugger Spencer Steer took home ROTM in May and Carroll took it home in June. Steer had a .283/.374/.497 line with 13 HRs and 48 RBI at the end of June, while Carroll had a .290/.366/.559 line with 17 HRs and 44 RBI.
At that point in the season, Outman would've needed a ridiculous resurgence to get close to being back in the race with other exciting rookies such as the Reds' Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz shining after mid-season call-ups, as well as rookies like Mets' Kodai Senga increasingly getting better as the season progressed.
Outman has experienced a resurgence out of nowhere to get back into the race, though. He went 0-4 against Kansas City to bring his OPS down to a season-low .718 mark, but then showed signs of getting back to his April self with a two-homer game against Pittsburgh two days after he hit rock bottom. In 34 games since the All-Star Break, Outman is second in all of the majors in OBP (.485) and his .979 OPS is easily the best among NL rookies.
While Outman's slump in the middle of the year is definitely keeping him closer to the rest of the pack, the one reason he remained in the lineup in May and June is also a major reason he still belongs in this race: defense. Outman leads all rookies with 6 Outs Above Average (OAA), which is tied for 12th in all of MLB, and even puts him ahead of Gold Glovers like Cody Bellinger and Tommy Edman in defensive value (and only behind Carroll) with 3.2 fWAR. Outman also has an advantage over guys like Andrew Abbott and Elly De La Cruz because he has been in the majors for the entire season. Only Steer, Carroll and Senga can counter Outman in terms of traditional counting stats because of their volume, but Outman's overall value, helped tremendously by home-run robberies and his own home runs, still leaves him as a prime candidate in the race.
While I would still place Abbott and Senga's impressive performances on the mound, along with Steer, McLain and Carroll's seasons at the plate above Outman's season so far, if Outman continues on the path he has been on since the All-Star Break, he might post a 20-HR, 20-SB season. If his OPS reaches somewhere around .850 with those defensive numbers furthering his case, Outman could have a late-season surprise comeback to win ROTY. For now, he's in position to get a few down-ballot votes and will remain focused on helping the Dodgers win their division (something none of the other candidates are as likely to do).
Clayton Kershaw: No. 6 in NL Cy Young race
This is a really tough one to discuss, given Kershaw's lengthy IL stint. The Dodgers have 45 games remaining, though, so Kershaw could make up to nine more starts before the end of the season. If he's able to do that and his numbers stay on the same pace they are now, Kershaw could actually get a few Cy Young votes, although it's nearly impossible for him to have a chance at winning. If you play the numbers game, you can see that Kershaw's 100.1 innings pitched across 17 starts is an average of 5.9 innings per outing. Assuming he makes nine starts in the rest of the season, he would only finish the year with 153 innings pitched across 26 starts.
Although Justin Verlander only made 28 starts in 2022 en route to the AL Cy Young, and Corbin Burnes made just 28 starts when he won the NL Cy Young in 2021, Verlander and Burnes pitched 175 and 167 innnings respectively. To find an accurate comparison for Kershaw's potential end-of-season numbers, however, a current Dodger had a very comparable season: Lance Lynn in 2021. That year, Lynn also made 28 starts, like Burnes and Verlander, but he only pitched 157 innings. He didn't qualify for the ERA title, but his 2.69 ERA and 163 ERA+ were still enough to get him to third place in AL Cy Young voting, trailing Gerrit Cole and Robbie Ray, whose 2.84 ERA and 157 ERA+ led qualified starters. Lynn's teammate, Carlos Rodón, also had better stats in 2021 than both Ray and Lynn, but pitched even less frequently. His 2.37 ERA and 185 ERA+ were the highest marks among pitchers who got Cy Young votes in 2021, but he only made 24 starts with 132.2 innings pitched, leading him to slide to fifth in AL Cy Young voting.
It looks like Kershaw is going to be on a path similar to Lynn and Rodón in 2021. His innings and starts will probably end up somewhere in between Rodón's 132.2 innings in 24 starts and Lynn's 157 innings in 28 starts. Kershaw's current ERA and ERA+ of 2.51 and 175 actually place him in a perfect hybrid of Lynn and Rodón's 2021. In 2023, the current top five pitchers in the NL Cy Young race are Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, Justin Steele and Spencer Strider and will likely be ahead of Kershaw as a result of strong overall numbers mixed with far superior volume to Kershaw. But other than that group, I think Kershaw's numbers are strong enough to overcome his disadvantage of fewer innings pitched.
Even with his injury, Kershaw is actually tied for four in the NL in fWAR among pitchers (3.5) with Merill Kelly, and tied for fourth in the NL in bWAR among pitchers (3.1) with Justin Steele. He has a better ERA and WHIP than everyone ahead of him.
Although it's a slim chance, if Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball for the rest of the season and averages six innings while making all of his starts, he could have a legitimate case to win the Cy Young.