Hernández has a clear weakness in his game, which is his over-aggression at the plate. His walk rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate on Statcast were all 13th percentile or worse in 2023. While Hernández does tend to swing and miss a lot, his power numbers are still off the charts. His xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel % and hard-hit % were all 79th percentile or better in 2023. Hernández has a career OPS of .802 in his eight MLB seasons, but in 2023, his OPS dropped to .740 even though he still hit 25 home runs for the third consecutive season.
So what will lead him to a bounce-back season in 2024? Last year, with Hernández playing for the Mariners, he lost the lineup protection he had in Toronto when he had players like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien in the lineup with him. While the Mariners certainly still have offensive talent, neither the Blue Jays nor the Mariners had lineups anywhere near the level of the Dodgers' group in 2024. Hernández will get more quality pitches to hit in 2024, and he will capitalize on those opportunities to get back to his Toronto form, where he posted top-20 AL MVP finishes in 2020 and 2021 with back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards.