4 free agent pitchers Dodgers now need to consider that they previously weren't
If they want to contend in 2024, the Dodgers need more pitching.
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On top of the Los Angeles Dodgers' 2023 World Series hopes continuing to dwindle because of their pitching woes, their upcoming offseason has now been put into question because of Shohei Ohtani's injury and Juilo Urías' arrest -- two very sad realities we must address for very different reasons.
Even without those players' absences, however, the Dodgers would still be in dire need of starting pitching. Clayton Kershaw's either no guarantee to return or no guarantee beyond 2024; Bobby Miller is promising, but can't have too much pressure heaped on him; Walker Buehler hasn't pitched in the bigs since June of 2022; Dustin May probably won't be returning as a starter in 2024 after undergoing his second elbow surgery since 2021; and Tony Gonsolin is out until 2025.
And even if you're high on prospects Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, it's hard to stake any amount of your future on arms that have yet to truly prove themselves at the big-league level. Especially not five of them at once.
That's why the Dodgers capitalizing elsewhere in free agency and on the trade market when it comes to securing starters this offseason will be paramount in dictating the foreseeable future. Another reason why that's so important? The 2025 free agency class will feature Tyler Glasnow as the only unrestricted ace-like target (unless Gerrit Cole opts out of his contract with the Yankees).
But the Dodgers can't leave anything up to chance. They have a winner right now and need to properly supplement it instead of risking flushing another season down the tubes.
4 free agent pitchers Dodgers now need to consider that they previously weren't
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray is a good pitcher. Though his career has featured a sort of roller coaster trajectory, he owns a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 1,498 strikeouts in 1,550 innings since 2013. And he's having a potential career year in 2023 (2.98 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.17 WHIP with 160 strikeouts in 28 starts totaling 163 innings).
He'll be entering his age-34 season in 2024 (excuse me??) so the Dodgers probably won't have to offer him anything insane, but his recent run of play and projectability to slot into the rotation as a rock-solid No. 3 or luxury No. 4-5 for the next three years cannot be denied.
We seriously doubt the Dodgers were eyeing Gray before we even considered writing about it, but now that he's put together back-to-back promising campaigns and is entering free agency when teams are lining up for top-end starters, they might have to circle back to this possibility.
Aaron Nola
How about a younger option that could possibly be had at a discount? Though the Philadelphia Phillies are playoff bound, Aaron Nola's down campaign should have them in a better position.
The right-hander finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2022, but has a 4.64 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in his 29 starts this year. He's given up a career-high 31 homers and will likely surpass that threshold for hits (161) and earned runs (91) too.
The bright side? He still barely walks batters and he's still striking out plenty. He also eats innings, as evidenced by his production dating back to 2018 (his lone All-Star season). Nola, excluding the shortened 2020 season, is on pace to throw for over 200 innings in four of his last five eligible seasons.
If the Dodgers can get him at a discount and nab a player with the ceiling of a No. 2 and the floor of a No. 4 starter for the remainder of Nola's prime, that might be the best economical move they could make. Nola is a known commodity, and it's not like the Dodgers would be taking an unnecessary risk here by attempting to predict future success.
He's good. He's steady. And his under-the-radar resume might allow the Dodgers to swoop in and avoid more expensive options that don't offer the same consistency.
Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery is, in some ways, the left-handed version of Nola. He's entering his age-31 season. He barely issues walks. He's a known commodity with a promising ceiling and high floor. His career ERA (3.80) is almost exactly the same as his career FIP (3.79). Any team is getting a good pitcher if they sign Montgomery.
He's only really hit his stride the last three seasons, too, which actually might help his case in free agency. Monty's on track to make at least 30 starts for a third consecutive year. In 2020, he was making his way back from Tommy John surgery and had a tough time during the COVID-shortened season, but bounced back admirably.
He's now pitched for three contenders since 2021. He went to the playoffs with the Yankees in 2021, the Cardinals in 2022, and could do the same with the Rangers in 2023. He has experience in big markets where the stakes are as high as can be. He won't be too expensive, but he won't be a bargain.
It depends how far the Dodgers want to go in this market of 1b pitchers. Montgomery is good, but probably not LA's style for an AAV of $20 million or higher. But even if they were to take the plunge, Montgomery has gotten better with each year he's pitched and will stabilize the middle of a playoff-bound team's rotation.
Blake Snell
Better yet, how about kicking the San Diego Padres while they're down? How about stealing a player from a division rival that has repeatedly owned you for years? Can't beat 'em? Buy 'em.
Blake Snell should win his second Cy Young award (he'll have one in each league!) when all is said and done this season, which is perfect timing for his first go in free agency. Though his consistency and health have been put into question thanks to how he's performed since 2019 (the year after he won the AL Cy Young with the Rays). the ceiling on Snell is the highest of anyone in this group.
He's pitching to a 2.52 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 1.26 WHIP this year, but those are far from his most impressive numbers. He's struck out 209 batters in 161 innings and has allowed just 110 hits (6.1/9). For his career, he's allowed just 0.9 HR/9. He has a good postseason track record, too. Across 12 games (10 starts), he owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 61 strikeouts in 48.2 innings pitched. He's utterly dominated the Dodgers in October (and during his time with the Padres during the regular season).
This is probably at least a $175 million contract, since Snell is entering his age-31 season and will have a very valid case for getting paid after Carlos Rodón got $162 million from the Yankees. But the investment is worth the best-case scenario production, which the Dodgers figure to get for at least half of the duration of any hypothetical contract (5-6 years?).
The Dodgers are losing at least one elite left-hander when November arrives, and it could very well be two. Snell is a logical replacement that comes with minimal concern when you look at the body of his work (188 starts, 3.26 ERA, 3.47 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in eight seasons). The Dodgers paid $103 million for Trevor Bauer when he sported a career ERA over 4.00. That makes any possible deal for Snell look like a no-brainer.
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