4 rentals Dodgers need to avoid at trade deadline to better prepare for 2024

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Rightfully, Los Angeles Dodgers fans want the team to acquire pitching at this year's trade deadline, since that seems to be the sole weakness of the current squad. There are a few positional needs, but without pitching, the ship will sink fast in the postseason.

That said, Andrew Friedman and the front office know they have to tread lightly. Upgrades are needed, but not at a prohibitive cost unless they were to help the team beyond 2023. There are a ton of rentals out there that potential sellers will be looking to capitalize on by taking advantage of desperate buyers.

Luckily, Friedman's approach at the deadline is always the most calculated. He's either aiming to minimize risk or pay the right price for blockbuster acquisitions. He's really only made two mistakes -- trading away Yordan Alvarez and Oneil Cruz -- so the track record is trustworthy dating back to 2015.

This current Dodgers team has exceeded expectations and is leading the NL West despite a disastrous and battered pitching staff. Then again, this roster isn't simply a piece or two away from a bonafide juggernaut contender. It's very good, but the luxury of being able to shell out assets for a couple of rentals that will put them over the top doesn't exist at the moment.

Dodgers fans might be clamoring for some of these names, but they might not be realistic gets because of how the market is shaping up.

4 rentals Dodgers need to avoid at trade deadline to better prepare for 2024

Michael Lorenzen

In Michael Lorenzen's second full season as a starter, the Detroit Tigers right-hander has found his groove. After transitioning from a relief role the last two years (35 starts between the Angels and Tigers), he's hit his stride with a 3.49 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 17 starts (100.2 innings) and was named an All-Star in 2023.

He's signed to a one-year, $8.5 million contract, though, so the Tigers, another struggling team, will be looking to cash out and take advantage of Lorenzen's current peak. That's the wrong price to pay if you're a buyer, especially if Lorenzen's being acquired to immediately take over an integral role, which he would be doing with the Dodgers. He can't quite be trusted to immediately start logging high-leverage starts in a playoff race, and he doesn't have a long enough track record to be a comfortable extension candidate.

If the price is right? Sure. But it won't be.

Luis Severino

The New York Yankees don't yet know what they're doing at the trade deadline, but one thing we do know is that they reportedly have a desire to shave some payroll. Look no further than them trying to offload Luis Severino, who is making $15 million this year and will not be returning to the Bronx once he hits free agency because of how bad his tenure has been ever since signing his four-year extension.

Despite his previous ace-like showings in 2017 and 2018, the Dodgers shouldn't be enticed to go after him, even if he will be cheap from a prospect-cost perspective (the Yankees probably won't care about the return, they will just want the money gone).

Severino has been dreadful in more ways than one. He's been dinged by both serious and nagging ailments on an alarming, consistent basis since the second half of the 2018 season. He's consistently struggled with his command and mechanics, which has resulted in a velocity dip. And when he loses his location as his fastball dips a few MPH, he gets destroyed, as evidenced by his scary peripheral metrics (legitimately one of the worst pitchers in MLB).

Potential suitors might consider shifting him to the bullpen since he can still hit 100 MPH on the radar gun, but is it worth it for a contender to attempt a role shift with a player who's constantly in his own head? Severino owns a 6.46 ERA, 6.30 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in his 11 starts this year. Though his last two have looked better, they're nothing to buy stock in.

Jordan Montgomery

Line up for the Cardinals' fire sale! Everyone will be there. And the Dodgers should be there for the right players. But Jordan Montgomery isn't one of them despite his promising baseline stats (3.37 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in 20 starts).

His peripheral metrics are worrisome, for the most part. He's not inducing a lot of whiffs and his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage aren't where you want them to be. Remember, there's a reason the Yankees traded him at the deadline last year, with the organization claiming he wouldn't be making postseason starts come October. If the Yankees -- a bad team -- feels that way, then the Dodgers should probably take it seriously.

Monty is making $10 million this year, which is both low enough for the Cardinals to demand a decent haul in any trade talks and high enough for a cost-conscious team like the Dodgers to raise an eyebrow (depending on where they stand with the luxury tax threshold).

Another thing? His agent is Scott Boras, so even if the Dodgers acquired him with the plan to extend him, it wouldn't happen. They'd just be surrendering assets to watch him walk to the highest bidder in free agency. No thank you.

James Paxton

The Dodgers already fleeced the Red Sox for Kiké Hernandez, so there's no sense in LA trying to help out Boston in their sell-high endeavors. The Red Sox are apparently building for the future, so expected them to part with as many rentals as possible. Hernandez was the first to go, and there's speculation Adam Duvall and James Paxton could be next.

Paxton has been good in his 12 starts this year, logging a 6-2 record with a 3.46 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.00 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 65 innings. But don't forget, up until May 12 of this year, the left-hander had made just six starts since the beginning of the 2020 season due to various injuries.

The Dodgers' pitching staff is banged up enough. They don't need to inherit another ticking time bomb liability regardless of the cost. Paxton might only be making $4 million, but you can bet the Red Sox will be looking for a favorable return, which won't be worth it for the Dodgers. His advanced metrics are right in line with his baseline numbers, but this is all about the gamble. How can anybody assume Paxton will maintain his health over the final 2-3 months of the season? He's never made 30 starts in a single campaign and has constantly been hurt ever since the Mariners called him up on a full-time basis back in 2014.

Let somebody else have this be their potential headache. Not worth it for LA.

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