7 free agents the Dodgers must avoid at all costs

Eddie Rosario

Dodgers fans probably don't need to be reminded of what Eddie Rosario did to them in the 2021 NLCS. Rosario was a man possessed and was the biggest reason why the Braves were able to advance to the World Series over LA that year. It could be tempting to see if the Dodgers could add him as a lefty outfield bat with some power and hope that he could dish out that sort of punishment to others.

Unfortunately, that seems highly unlikely. The problem is that since that fateful postseason run, Rosario hasn't been very good. He was dreadful in 2022 as he battled vision issues that required surgical correction. Rosario was better in 2023 and did hit 21 homers, but the hit tool is still a real question mark. He struggled enough that the Braves were willing to decline his very affordable $9 million option for 2024. Again, LA just has better options available to them to address the outfield.

Lucas Giolito

At the trade deadline this past season, arguably the most coveted trade target league-wide was Lucas Giolito. He had a track record of success, including multiple top 10 Cy Young finishes, some encouraging peripherals (particularly his swing-and-miss stuff), and he passed the eye test as a quality pitcher playing for the dumpster fire that was the 2023 White Sox. While the Dodgers didn't land him at the trade deadline, it would make some logical sense that they could pursue him in free agency.

However, that would be ignoring some really troubling trends. Since the 2020 season, Giolito has seen his FIP slowly tick further and further in the wrong direction while his strikeout and walk rates have gotten worse. Things came to a head in 2023 where he struggled with Chicago and basically imploded with the Angels and Guardians after he was traded. With a pitching class as rich as this one, the Dodgers need to stay far, far away and look at better options that aren't circling the drain.

Jack Flaherty

Another popular name at the trade deadline, or at least a name that was talked about a lot, was Jack Flaherty, who looked like he was on the path to being one of the league's next big stars on the mound back in 2019 with the Cardinals. He had live stuff, didn't walk a ton of batters, and boasted a 2.75 ERA with a top-four Cy Young finish.

The problem is that was the last season we saw Flaherty both healthy and good. Ever since he has battled injuries, and when he's been on the mound, the results have been mediocre to bad. From 2020 to 2023, he averaged a 4.42 ERA and 4.36 FIP with the results getting progressively worse over time. There's going to be some team that will pay Flaherty in the hope that they can fix him, but LA shouldn't be in the market for a massive reclamation project.

Craig Kimbrel

For a guy in his mid-30s and has as many miles on his arm as he does, Craig Kimbrel has continued to produce at a high level. He just made his ninth All-Star team and put up a 3.26 ERA while striking out opposing batters at a 12.3 K/9 clip. He may not be the same guy he was a decade ago, but he can definitely still pitch (even though it's agonizing at times).

The issue with signing Kimbrel is the opportunity cost along with the associated risk in paying up for a 35-year-old reliever. Kimbrel made $10 million last year and odds are that he's going to ask for around that much for the 2024 season as well. With Father Time lurking right behind him and the inherent volatility with bullpen arms in general. the Dodgers just need to spread their money around a bit more to fill out their bullpen instead of hoping that Kimbrel can run it back one more time.

They already had the Kimbrel experience in 2022. Can't let it happen again.

Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman has had quite the strange career to this point. Despite the fact that he's had the most dominant fastball in the majors since he debuted way back in 2010 and has made seven All-Star teams, he's often overlooked. Chapman even had to settle for a one-year deal with the Royals in 2023 thanks to his waning command and an acrimonious end to his time with the Yankees.

While the guy is coming off another very good season where he put up a 3.06 ERA and continued to strike out batters at an elite clip, the Dodgers need to stay away. LA has already had more than enough drama to deal with in recent years to risk potentially inviting more with Chapman. On top of that, his walk rate has been truly dreadful the last three seasons. With all of those innings on his arm, the way he throws, and how he's trending, the Dodgers need to avoid giving him what is likely to be a a decent sum of money for 2024.

Adam Ottavino

Finally, we come to another bullpen arm that the Dodgers need to avoid in Adam Ottavino. When Ottavino's sweeper is on, the guy is unhittable. One of the few pitchers that actually played well with most of his games coming at Coors Field, Ottavino has put together an underrated career with a 3.42 ERA with 789 strikeouts in 687 innings of work across 13 seasons. Again, the guy has been really good, including this past season with the Mets.

There are some troubling trends with Ottavino, though. In addition to the fact he's about to turn 38 years old, his fastball has gone from a mid-90s offering as recently as 2022 to averaging 92-93 MPH in 2023. His sweeper, the pitch that basically made his career, has seen its spin rate steadily decline in recent years as well. It isn't that surprising to see an older guy's stuff decline as time goes on, but that, combined with fairly consistent issues with walks going back to 2017, is a recipe for heartache unless he's looking to sign for cheap.

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