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8 trade candidates to upgrade Dodgers' bullpen
All things considered, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a pretty good spot. They are comfortably over .500 and their run differential has them as one of the best expected teams in the National League. They have a strong case for boasting the best offense in the NL behind (maybe) the Braves, and their run prevention has largely been good.
However, games are not played in the expected stats realm, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have proven to be a problem in the NL West. Buoyed by Zac Gallen making a run at the NL Cy Young and Corbin Carroll being, well, amazing, Arizona has outperformed expectations and has one of the better records in baseball. That means the Dodgers have some catching up to do.
Thankfully, for all the problems the Dodgers possess, they're only 4.5 games out of the division and currently hold a Wild Card spot with the season reaching the midway point. Really not bad at all.
One thing fans do know, however, is that this team will not survive if the bullpen isn't addressed by the trade deadline. The unit has the worst ERA in the NL and second-worst in MLB (only behind the Athletics). That's unsustainable for any team with playoff aspirations.
So, Andrew Friedman, it's time to get to work.
The Dodgers need bullpen help at the trade deadline
We are firmly into the summer months, past the point where it's a small sample of games and, well, the Dodgers’ bullpen is not very good or deep. They rank in the bottom third in all of baseball by fWAR with only Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Victor Gonzalez having what one would classify as "good seasons" on paper. With the rest of the bullpen performing like placeholders, the Dodgers need to add some bullpen arms at the deadline.
Here are a few options that should be available for the right price.
Aroldis Chapman
It seems like Aroldis Chapman is just in a perennial state of being available on the trade market even though he hasn’t moved around all that much. However, despite being around as long as he has, he's still putting up results both for those that look at the back of his baseball card as well as for those that track the advanced metrics. He still throws absolute gas, everyone knows it's coming, and guys still can’t hit it.
Chapman has some additional benefits going for him. One, he's a pending free agent which will presumably push his trade price down. Secondly, the Royals are bad yet again so they should be motivated to sell. He does have a past suspension for a domestic violence incident (in addition to his numerous other questionable situations with the Yankees that could give teams a pause) and there's expected to be a bidding war for him, but the Dodgers have the spare prospect capital to get a deal done and not mess up their luxury tax math too much.
Scott Barlow
Another Royals player, Scott Barlow is an intriguing option if LA is looking to get a guy who is more than a rental as he is under team control through the 2024 season. While some of the counting stats haven’t been good in 2023, he has a track record of performance and he's still been missing bats this season, which bodes well for him over the long-term.
The primary issue with Barlow isn’t availability or performance, but potential cost. It's probably a fair assumption that the Royals are going to be very popular at the trade deadline, and while they will have less leverage when it comes to the rental types, that won’t necessarily be the case for guys with team control left. It all comes down to how much LA feels comfortable giving up for a reliever, but he should remain an option.
Daniel Bard
Relievers in their late 30s that play for the Rockies probably shouldn't be good, but Daniel Bard is putting together another excellent season nonetheless. He doesn’t give up hard contact, he misses his fair share of bats, and his slider remains an absolute weapon. He isn’t the sexiest of the relief options potentially available, but he generally gets the job done.
That said, there are some potential problems here. One, the Dodgers are an analytics-driven team and not all of the news is good there. In addition to the usual “Father Time is undefeated” concerns, they may not want to commit to a guy that is making almost $10 million a year with his kind of walk rates, chase rates, and some expected batted ball metrics. Plus, Colorado may not be enthusiastic about trading Bard to a division rival despite the fact that the Rockies aren’t going to be competing anytime soon.
Keynan Middleton
The White Sox are a weird case because this is a team that should be in a much better position than they are in a division that is truly bad. There’s a chance that Chicago won’t be in full sell mode at the deadline if they can string some wins together, but Keynan Middleton should still be on the table as a guy who will be a free agent after the season and who is putting up some gaudy peripheral numbers.
As a rental who's also not a household name, Middleton may be an ideal option for the Dodgers if the White Sox decide to move him. He is dirt cheap (making just $750,000 this season) and has been very productive. His previous three seasons were decidedly less promising and he will be in high demand, but this is a guy that could be a perfect fit if he's priced as a rental reliever should be.
Buck Farmer
Farmer is another guy who will be a free agent after the 2023 season who also happens to be putting up arguably his best showing in the majors. He does a lot of things reasonably well and his slider has become borderline unhittable this year. He isn’t a fireballer nor does he put up big strikeout numbers, but there's a lot to like here.
The fit for the Dodgers is a good one, but the Reds are in a weird spot similar to the White Sox except Cincinnati is showing actual signs of life now. The call-up of Elly De La Cruz seems to have really energized the Reds, and given the fact that the NL Central is only marginally better than the woeful AL Central, they may not be selling at the deadline as they are likely to be hanging around in the division race. Farmer’s impending free agency does help the cause, though, so this is a name to circle for now.
Kendall Graveman
The White Sox are making another appearance here, but this time in a guy that has another year of team control in Kendall Graveman, who is having a solid season for Chicago yet again despite a middling strikeout rate thanks to top-notch marks for his two fastballs. The walk rate hasn’t been great this season, but has historically been better on that end so there's some reason to think that he won't keep giving up too many free passes.
Aside from the aforementioned “the White Sox may be in contention” problem, a mutually agreeable price could be a bit of a problem. On the one hand, Graveman is under control through the 2024 season which has real value. On the other hand, the White Sox probably think they will contend in the AL Central in 2024, even if 2023 ends up being lost. And at $8 million a year, Graveman doesn’t provide much in terms of surplus value over what he's getting paid.
Hunter Harvey
Here's the good news on Hunter Harvey. The Nationals are quite bad and will remain so for a while, so his availability shouldn’t be a problem. He's also putting up some decent surface-level results in 2023 with a nice strikeout rate, he throws hard (which helps the cause, and has two years of control left after this season, so he could be around for a while.
However, a cursory look at his advanced metrics shows signs of potential trouble. His walk rate, whiff rate, and chase rate are rather meh, and the amount of hard contact he gives up is downright alarming. That said, the Dodgers are really good at getting the most out of their guys and there is a decent chance that they could have some adjustments in mind to quell some of those concerns. If that's the case, he won't be particularly cheap in a trade as the Nationals need to stock up on talent and will probably value Harvey’s team control highly.
Alexis Diaz: The pipedream
Alexis Diaz is the sexiest name on the hypothetical trade market when it comes to relievers, and for good reason. Sure, he has walked too many guys this season, but the stuff is absolutely electric and everything else about his profile is very exciting. That fastball/slider combo has the chance to be very good for a long time and he's under team control through the 2027 season.
Whether or not the Reds would even entertain trading Diaz is a fair question. They are an improving young team in a bad division, so trading away their hotshot star reliever that has tons of team control may not go over well and may not even be a good idea. However, relievers are still relievers and almost all of them are on borrowed time. If the Dodgers were able to come up with a big-time trade package that maybe included a player that could help the Reds this season, that might be enough to convince Cincinnati. That said, don’t think that most of the rest of the league isn’t trying to find a way to pry Alexis out of the Reds’ hands, too.
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